Economic well-being, UK: October to December 2014

• In Q4 2014, gross domestic product (GDP) per head increased 0.5% compared to Q3 2014 but remains 1.2% below pre-economic downturn levels. This was a slightly slower growth rate than the 0.6% quarterly increase seen in GDP
• Net national disposable income (NNDI) per head, which represents the income available to UK residents, has remained broadly flat since Q1 2012 and remains 5.1% below pre-economic downturn levels
• In Q4 2014 real household disposable income (RHDI) per head (excluding non-profit institutions serving households) increased 1.9% compared to the same quarter a year ago (Q4 2013). For 2014 as a whole, RHDI per head (excluding NPISH) was broadly unchanged, up 0.1%, compared to 2013
• In Q4 2014, household spending per head grew 0.3% compared to the previous quarter – continuing the general upward trend that started in Q3 2011

This release considers the measurement of economic or material well-being, presenting a dashboard of indicators and commentary that, together, give a more rounded and comprehensive basis for assessing changes in economic wellbeing, as proposed in Economic Well-being: Framework and Indicators.

Economic well-being is a subset of the measurement of national well-being and recognises that many dimensions of well-being are outside the material sphere (for example, our “Wheel of Well-being”).

Notes for introduction

1. Throughout this release Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (January to March), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (April to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to September) and Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (October to December).

Real GDP per head

In Q4 2014 gross domestic product (GDP) per head, which adjusts GDP for the size of the population, increased 0.5% compared to Q3 2014. This was a slightly slower growth rate than the 0.6% quarterly increase seen in GDP, which recovered to its pre-economic downturn level in Q3 2013. Despite the quarterly growth, GDP per head remains 1.2% below its pre-economic downturn level.

Between 2013 and 2014, GDP per head increased 2.2%. This was slower than the 2.8% increase in GDP over the same period.

Real net national disposable income (NNDI) per head

In Q4 2014, NNDI per head remained broadly unchanged on the quarter, increasing 0.1%. This was a slower growth rate than the 0.5% quarterly increase seen in GDP per head.

Between 2013 and 2014, NNDI per head increased 1.4%. This was slower than the 2.2% increase in GDP per head over the same period.

As discussed in the Economic well-being - Framework and Indicators article there are two key differences between GDP per head and NNDI per head.

First, not all income generated by production in the UK will be payable to UK residents. Some of the capital employed will be owned by non-residents and they will be entitled to the return on that investment. Conversely, UK residents receive income from production activities taking place elsewhere, based on their investments overseas. Adjusting for these flows gives a measure which is better focused on income rather than production.

Second, it can be adjusted for capital consumption. GDP is “gross” in the sense that it does not adjust for capital depreciation - that is to say the day-to-day wear and tear on vehicles, machinery, buildings and other fixed capital used in the productive process. It treats such consumption of capital as no different from any other form of consumption. But most people would not regard depreciation as adding to their material well-being.

GDP per head and net domestic product (NDP) per head track reasonably well over the course of the recession, suggesting that the impact of capital consumption is relatively low.

However, NNDI has behaved somewhat differently to GDP, particularly since late 2011. NNDI, which represents the income generated by production that is payable to UK residents, has remained broadly flat since Q1 2012. In Q4 2014 NNDI remained 5.1% below its pre-economic downturn level, this is compared to GDP per head which was 1.2% below its pre-economic downturn level in the same quarter.

The difference between the experience of GDP per head and NNDI per head since Q3 2011 can be explained by looking at the balance of primary incomes, which captures flows of income into and out of the UK economy.

One key part of primary incomes is direct investment; that is earnings from investments in which an investor owns 10% or more of the ordinary shares or voting power in an incorporated enterprise, or an equivalent ownership in an unincorporated enterprise. Since late 2011, there has been a fall in the net earnings of foreign direct investment (FDI) (the difference between earnings from direct investment abroad and from foreign direct investment in the UK). This fall can be primarily attributed to a fall in UK residents’ earnings from investment abroad.

The lower income received by UK residents on their overseas FDI can be attributed to falls in both the stock of assets UK residents’ hold, and the rates of return on those assets. In contrast, foreign residents have continued to expand their holdings of UK assets, a phenomenon that may be linked to the strength in the UK’s recent recovery.

Perception of the economic situation

The Eurobarometer Consumer survey asks respondents how they think the general economic situation has changed over the last 12 months. In December 2014 the aggregate balance stood at negative 4.0, suggesting that on average, respondents think the economic situation is broadly similar to a year ago. The figure is slightly worse than the negative 3.4 recorded at the end of Q3 2014. The general picture throughout 2014 has been a continued improvement in people’s perceptions of the general economic situation. At its lowest, in May 2009, the Euro-barometer reported an aggregate balance of negative 82.3 for the general economic situation.

Notes for whole economy production and income

1. Throughout this release Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (January to March), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (April to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to September) and Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (October to December).

In Q4 2014 real household disposable income (RHDI) per head (excluding non-profit institutions serving households) increased 1.9% compared to the same quarter a year ago (Q4 2013). In Q4 2014 RHDI per head (excluding NPISH) increased 1.8% compared to Q3 2014. For 2014 as a whole, RHDI per head (excluding NPISH) was broadly unchanged, up 0.1% compared to 2013. Overall, in Q4 2014 RHDI per head (excluding NPISH) was 2.2% above its pre-economic downturn level.

In previous releases, we considered RHDI per head of the household and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) sector. In March 2015, we published initial estimates of the real disposable income of households only. We consider this a better indicator of the economic well-being of households. Real Household and NPISH disposable income per head will continue to be published alongside RHDI per head (excluding NPISH) in this release.

Real Household and NPISH disposable income per head increased 1.7% compared to the same quarter a year ago (Q4 2013). For 2014 as a whole, real household and NPISH disposable income per head decreased 0.1%.

As GDP began to fall in mid-2008, RHDI (excluding NPISH) per head remained fairly buoyant. By Q2 2009, RHDI (excluding NPISH) per head was 3.8% above its pre-economic downturn level. This initial improvement in real household income per head was a result of several factors. Firstly, interest rates reached historic lows and therefore many people’s mortgage interest payments fell. This meant many householders’ disposable incomes rose as a result of lower mortgage payments. Additionally, as employment fell and unemployment rose, people paid less in the way of taxes and claimed more in the way of benefits. The result was that real household incomes were supported by rising social security benefits and reduced taxes. However, moving into early 2011, the impact of these factors had worn off and inflation had risen. The increase in prices eroded the growth of household incomes, as prices were rising at a faster rate than people’s incomes, and therefore over time, people found their income purchased a lower quantity of goods and services. Following this, until late 2014, real household income per head has remained broadly flat. In Q4 2014 RHDI per head (excluding NPISH) increased 1.9% compared to the same quarter a year ago and overall, by Q4 2014, RHDI (excluding NPISH) was 2.2% above its pre-economic downturn levels.

For international comparisons it is important to consider benefits in kind. The real household and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) adjusted disposable income per head series, which makes the adjustment for benefits in kind, can be found in the reference table.

Perception of household income

As well as considering levels of household income, it is important to consider individuals perceptions of their own income. The Eurobarometer Consumer survey asks respondents their views on the financial situation of their household over the past 12 months. A negative balance means respondents reported their financial situation got worse, a positive balance means they reported it improved.

Between the end of Q3 2014 and the end of Q4 2014, the aggregate balance improved from negative 7.6 to negative 5.2. This follows the sharper increases seen since early 2013. However, despite the continued increase, the series remains slightly negative which means that, on average, households feel their financial situation has worsened slightly over the past 12 months.

The Eurobarometer Consumer survey also asks respondents their views on whether now is a good time to save. Between the end of Q3 2014 and the end of Q4 2014, the balance decreased slightly from negative 6.4 to negative 6.6. The balance has been negative since March 2011 and despite improving from May 2013 onwards, the series remains negative; suggesting that respondents continue to believe now is not a good time to save. Despite this view, on average, households reported saving at least some of their income.

Additionally, Understanding Society provides information on the proportion of individuals that report being somewhat, mostly, or completely, satisfied with the income of their household, and the proportion of households that report finding it quite, or very, difficult to get by financially.

In the financial year 2012 to 2013 (2012/13) the proportion of individuals that reported finding it difficult to get by financially was 10.1%. This was 0.8 percentage points lower than 2011/12, continuing the slight downward trend that has been seen since it peaked in 2009/10.

In 2012/13 the percentage of respondents that were somewhat, mostly, or completely, satisfied with their level of income was 53.4%, this is up 0.8 percentage points from 2011/12. Satisfaction with income saw a downward trend between 2007 and 2011/12, recording a 4.7 percentage point decline between 2010/11 and 2011/12. Whilst the increase in 2012/13 shows some improvement in this trend, it remains below the levels seen prior to the economic downturn.

Distribution of income²

In 2012/13 median income (the income of the middle household if all households are ranked from the lowest income to the highest) was 1.4% lower than in 2011/12, at £23,300. This is a continuation of the downward trend that has been seen in median income since 2009/10 and results in median income in 2012/13 being at its lowest level since 2002/03. However, the rate of decline has slowed over the last 2 years.

As it represents the middle of the income distribution, the median household income provides a good indication of the income of the “typical” household. However, it is also important to consider how income is distributed around the middle, considering the equality of the income distribution. One indicator is the ratio of total income received by the richest fifth of households to that received by the poorest fifth (other indicators are available). If the ratio gets larger then it implies increasing inequality between the top fifth and bottom fifth of households.

Between 2011/12 and the 2012/13 this ratio saw a small increase from 5.1 to 5.3, suggesting a slight increase in income inequality. There were two reasons for the increase in this ratio; firstly, the income of the poorest fifth declined by 3.3%, in addition the income of the richest fifth increased by 1.6%.

This is contrary to the trend seen between 2007/08 and 2011/12, which saw continued decreases in the ratio. Over the four year period, the average income of the poorest fifth increased 7.0%, while the richest fifth of households saw income fall by 6.7%. The largest fall in the income of the richest fifth was between 2010/11 and 2011/12, with income falling 6.2%.

However, as shown in figure 3, overall movements in the ratio over the last ten years have been relatively small when compared to earlier periods.

Notes for household income

1. The Eurobarometer Consumer survey is collected by GFK for the European Commission. There is more information about interpreting the Eurobarometer Consumer survey in background note 5.

2. Real Household Disposable Income (RHDI) is published in both non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) and seasonally adjusted (SA) formats in the UK Economic Accounts, with the latter removing seasonal effects to allow comparisons over time. However, it is sensitive to short term changes in its components, particularly on a quarterly basis, meaning that quarter on quarter movements can appear volatile. To better present the longer term movement in household income, this bulletin presents RHDI growth on a quarter on the same quarter a year ago and annual basis.

3. The income measure used in this section is real equivalised household disposable income. Disposable income is the amount of money that households have available for spending and saving after direct taxes (such as income tax and council tax) have been accounted for. It includes earnings from employment, private pensions and investments as well as cash benefits provided by the state. Equivalisation is the process of accounting for the fact that households with many members are likely to need a higher income to achieve the same standard of living as households with fewer members.

4. Throughout this release Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (January to March), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (April to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to September) and Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (October to December).

5. Throughout this release, financial years are written as 2011/12, for example. This refers to the financial year ending 2012. This convention is applied for all years.

Whilst looking at income is a viable measure of the material well-being in the economy, a fuller picture of the economic well-being of a country can be found by looking at how much households consume.

In June 2014, we published an article that presented new findings on the relationship between personal well-being, household income and expenditure using regression analysis. It found that household expenditure appeared to have a stronger relationship with personal well-being than household income.

In Q4 2014 real household spending per head grew 0.3% compared to the previous quarter, continuing the general upward trend that started in Q3 2011. However, real household spending per head remains 2.5% below its pre-economic downturn level. This is despite real household incomes per head being 2.2% above their pre-economic downturn levels (the Household income section has more information).

Since Q2 2011 real household spending per head has steadily increased. This could reflect improved economic sentiment among households. In 2014 overall, the pace of growth in real household spending per head has picked up, increasing 1.8% compared to 2013. This was higher than the 1.0% growth seen between 2012 and 2013. However, there was a slowdown in the growth rate in Q4 2014 compared to the growth posted in Q3 2014.

As with household income, for international comparisons it is important to consider benefits in kind. Real household and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) actual final consumption per head, which makes the adjustment for benefits in kind, can be found in the reference table.

Notes for household spending

1. Throughout this release Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (January to March), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (April to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to September) and Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (October to December).

This section considers two different measures of wealth; net worth from the National Accounts and household wealth from the Wealth and Assets Survey (WAS). The National Accounts provide timely and internationally comparable data over time, whereas WAS provides detail on the distribution of wealth.

Total net worth¹

In 2013, the net worth of the economy as a whole (of households, businesses and the government) increased 4.4%, to £7.6 trillion. Total net worth is the sum of the values of financial assets (for example, shares and deposits) and non-financial assets (for example, dwellings and machinery), minus financial liabilities. In 2013, the increase was mainly attributable to an increase in the net worth of financial corporations, which increased by £421 billion (373%). This increase was somewhat offset by nonfinancial corporations, where worth decreased between 2012 and 2013.

This measure has not been adjusted for inflation, which was 2.6% on average, as measured by the CPI between 2012 and 2013. This suggests that the growth in total net worth was stronger than the growth in the general price level.

The net worth of the economy as a whole is important as it indicates the sustainability of current levels of production and corresponding income flows. It is possible that a nation might be increasing its output, but is wearing down its stock of net assets. This means that level of production is unsustainable, or vice versa. However, for a complete appraisal of sustainability, natural, human and social capital should also be considered².

Figure 5 shows total net worth between 2004 and 2013 for the whole economy, and three of the sectors: households, financial and non-financial corporations. Between 2004 and 2007, total net worth increased year-on-year, mainly attributable to an increase in household non-financial assets. Net worth then fell in 2008 and 2009, before increasing again following the economic downturn.

Household net worth

Contributing to the increase in total worth, in 2013 household net worth increased 2.6%. As with total worth, this measure has not been adjusted for inflation, and therefore some of the increase in worth could be a result of an increase in price levels. Household net worth considers households financial position and includes non-financial assets such as houses³. Figure 6 shows the household net worth position by type of asset between 2004 and 2013.

The main contributing factor behind the 2.6% increase in household net worth between the end of 2012 and the end of 2013 was a 4.8% increase in the value of household dwellings. However, the annual growth rate in overall household net worth was lower as a result of slower growth in ‘other non-financial’ (2.1%) and ‘net financial’ (0.1%) assets at the end of 2013 compared to the end of 2012. Between the end of 2008 and the end of 2013, the total value of UK household dwellings has increased by 20.0%. Household dwellings continued to make up over half (52%) of household net worth at the end of 2013.

Distribution of household wealth

In the December 2014 Economic Well-being Bulletin, median household wealth, as measured by the Wealth and Assets Survey (WAS) was presented. Estimates from WAS are updated every two years, therefore different measures demonstrating the distribution of wealth will be presented at this point in each quarterly bulletin.

Figure 7 presents the distribution of total household gross annual income⁵ and total household wealth⁶ (note that they are separate distributions, therefore individual households are not necessarily in the same income and wealth quintiles). Half of all households (the 50th percentile point or median) had total wealth of £218,400 or more in 2010 to 2012. In comparison, half of all households received gross annual income of £32,100 or more. Median total household wealth was therefore 6.8 times larger than median total household gross annual income. Figure 7 also suggests that wealth is less equally distributed than income. In 2010 to 2012, the value of the 10th percentile point for total household wealth was 15% or £1,700 larger than the equivalent for total household income. Moving up the distribution, the gap between the percentile values shown for total household wealth and income widens. The 90th percentile value for total household wealth was £918,100, 11.4 times larger than the 90th percentile value for total household income which stood at £80,700.

Whilst households with higher wealth levels often have higher levels of gross annual income, this is not always the case. In 2010 to 2012 47% of households in the top income quintile were also in the top wealth quintile and 42% of households in the bottom income quintile were also in the bottom wealth quintile. However 3% of households in the top income quintile were in the lowest wealth quintile (likely to include younger households, who have yet to accumulate wealth and may have large financial debts such as student loans or mortgage debt); and 3% of households in the lowest income quintile were in the top wealth quintile (likely to include retired households who have accumulated wealth but have reduced income after retirement).

Notes for wealth

1. Here ‘net’ is used to describe the net wealth position (assets minus liabilities), rather than making an adjustment for capital consumption.

2. These measures are currently under development as part of the Measuring National Well-being programme and will be included in future releases where relevant.

3. Other non-financial assets includes “Other buildings and structures”, “Machinery and equipment”, “Cultivated biological products”, “Intellectual property products”, “Inventories” and “Contracts, leases and licences”.

4. Throughout this release Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (January to March), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (April to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to September) and Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (October to December).

5. “Total household gross annual income” is a flow concept, and refers to the incoming flow of resources over a 12 month period. In WAS, it comprises four constituent parts: “earned income from employment” (including both employees and the self-employed); “income from state support” (including benefits, tax credits and state pensions); “income from private pensions” (including occupational and personal pensions) and “other income” (such as income from investments and rent from property). This is a gross figure (i.e. no deductions for tax, national insurance, pension contributions or other deductions an employer might make, or housing costs etc. are made).

6. “Total household wealth” is a stock concept, and refers to a balance at a point in time. In WAS, it is defined as the sum of four components: “net property wealth”, “net financial wealth”, “physical wealth” and “private pension wealth”.

In the 3 months to December 2014 (Q4 2014), the unemployment rate was 5.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the 3 months to September 2014 (Q3 2014). Although the headline rate of unemployment has fallen sharply over the past year, it remains above its pre-economic downturn level.

Unemployment can have an impact on economic well-being through the impact on individuals’ income, as well as a direct impact on their personal well-being (how satisfied they are, how worthwhile they consider their life to be, their happiness and anxiety levels). Looking at the unemployment figures in more detail, in recent times there have been particularly large falls in short term unemployment, those unemployed for less than six months, which is now at pre-economic downturn levels. Other, longer term categories have also been generally falling since the more sustained economic recovery seen since the start of 2013, and are approaching their 2002-2007 average levels.

Notes for unemployment

1. Throughout this release Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (January to March), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (April to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to September) and Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (October to December).

In December 2014 (the final month of Q4 2014), the rate of inflation as measured by the consumer prices index (CPI) was 0.5%, down 0.5 percentage points from the 1.0% rate recorded in November 2014. On average, the inflation rate for the final quarter of 2014 was 0.9%, down 0.6 percentage points compared to Q3 2014.

The rate of inflation in December was the joint lowest since records began, matching the 0.5% rate last seen in May 2000. Since January 2008, inflation has twice peaked at 5.2% (in September 2008 and September 2011) but has fallen sharply since those highs, more recently partly due to lower oil prices.

The rate of inflation is important for economic well-being for its effect on income and net wealth. When prices increase faster than income, over time, incomes can buy less and households feel worse off. Equally, if incomes increase faster than prices, over time, incomes can buy more and households feel better off. The income section of this release considers the evolution of household income, adjusted for inflation. In addition, inflation can impact on households through its effect on net wealth. If inflation is lower than the interest rates offered to households by banks, then the real value of savings increases.

Similarly, if inflation is higher than these interest rates then the real value of savings decreases. Since 2013, the lower inflation rate has provided an improved situation for savers. However, higher levels of inflation can also act to erode away debt, as it becomes worth less in real terms over time.

Perceptions of inflation

As with income, it is important to consider individuals perceptions of price trends. The Eurobarometer Consumer survey asked respondents how they thought consumer prices had developed over the past 12 months. Perceptions of price change over the last 12 months have mapped reasonably well to actual changes in price levels.

There has been a general downward trend since mid-2011 with the aggregate balance standing at 15.8 in December 2014.

Notes for inflation

1. Throughout this release Q1 refers to Quarter 1 (January to March), Q2 refers to Quarter 2 (April to June), Q3 refers to Quarter 3 (July to September) and Q4 refers to Quarter 4 (October to December).