Coronavirus and non-UK key workers

• Between 2017 and 2019, there were 32.3 million people employed in the UK workforce, of which 11% were non-British nationals (7% EU and 4% non-EU nationals).

• During the same period, roughly a third (10.5 million) were employed in key worker occupations and industries.

• Similar to the total UK workforce, 10% of key workers were non-British nationals, with EU and non-EU nationals making up 6% and 4%, respectively.

• When looking at this by country of birth instead of nationality, around 18% of key workers were born outside of the UK; 6% of key workers were EU-born and 11% were non-EU-born, including many who would have likely obtained British citizenship since moving to the UK.

• The largest number of key workers worked in health and social care (3.2 million), of which 12% were non-British nationals with an equal split between EU and non-EU nationals.

• The key worker occupation group with the largest proportion of non-British nationals was food and necessary goods; there were around 1.5 million people who worked in that group, of which 15% were non-British nationals, including 11% EU nationals.

• Looking at the change over time from 2012 to 2019, the number of non-British nationals employed in key worker occupations and industries had grown (from 826,300 in 2012 to 1,097,100 in 2019); this was mainly driven by a steady increase in EU nationals working in health and social care (from 100,200 in 2012 to 192,300 in 2019).

Key workers^1,2 have been at the forefront of efforts in the UK to address the impact and spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. As the impact of the pandemic persists, people in these key worker occupations continue to play an important role, from nurses and doctors working in health care, to those providing education and childcare across the UK.

In May 2020, in response to the pandemic, we published estimates of the numbers and characteristics of those who could be considered as potential key workers. Here, we provide more insight into the non-UK populations³ (non-British nationals and non-UK-born) working in these occupations, based on the 2017 to 2019 Annual Population Survey (APS).

We consider the numbers and proportions of non-UK workers in key worker occupations nationally and by local area. For the health and social care key worker occupation group, this builds on our analysis on international migration and the health workforce, which was published in August 2019.

Given the changing policy context around migration, with the end of free movement and a new points-based immigration system coming into effect from January 2021⁴, it is increasingly important to understand the role of the non-UK populations within the total UK workforce and at a local level. Here, we provide a snapshot of residents (that is, “stocks”) working in the UK in key worker occupations between 2017 and 2019. This gives context on the current characteristics of the workforce based on the latest available data, ahead of the changes to the immigration system. These changes may affect roles and sectors in the economy differently as well as the recruitment and attractiveness of the UK for potential workers from abroad.

Defining the non-UK populations (non-British nationals and non-UK-born)

When analysing the UK resident population, we provide data on both nationality and country of birth, as they give different perspectives.³ We focus on nationality in the analysis (Sections 3 to 7) and Section 1: Main points, given the relevance to upcoming changes to the immigration system – where both EU and non-EU citizens coming to the UK for the purpose of work or study will need to obtain a visa – and for consistency with previous Office for National Statistics (ONS) releases on international migration and the workforce. However, it is important to note that nationality does not fully reflect immigration status or the rights and entitlements of individuals to work and access services in the UK.

We have provided additional data on key workers by country of birth, which cover those born outside of the UK including people who have since become UK citizens. Unlike nationality, a person’s country of birth cannot change and so can be useful for understanding the longer-term contribution of international migration to the UK, including people who have previously moved to the UK but since changed nationality. However, many people who were born abroad will have obtained British citizenship since moving to the UK.

Notes: Overview of key workers and the non-UK population

1. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) can give an indication of those in key worker occupations and key worker industries, based on an interpretation of UK government guidance. This guidance is for defining who is eligible for childcare places. The eight key worker occupation groups are: education and childcare; food and necessary goods; health and social care; key public services; national and local governments; public safety and national security; transport; and utilities and communication.

2. Key worker occupations are defined using the 2010 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) and the 2007 Standard Industrial Classification of Economic Activities (SIC). More information can be found in Section 9: Glossary, and a detailed list of selected SOCs and SICs are provided in the accompanying dataset.

3. Non-UK populations refer to both non-British nationals and the non-UK-born. For more information on defining international migrants using nationality and country of birth and specific country groupings, see Section 9: Glossary.

4. Changes to the immigration system will mean people who want to come to the UK to work and study must meet certain skills and salary thresholds before they can qualify for entry. Under the new Skilled Workers route there is an element of tradeable points – where jobs are in shortage, where there is a relevant PhD or where the applicant is a new entrant to the labour market. This points-based approach, which follows the ending of free movement, will apply to those migrants arriving in the UK from January 2021 (that is, new “flows”).

The most recent figures between 2017 and 2019 showed around 32.3 million people employed in the total UK workforce.

During the same period, roughly a third (10.5 million) were employed in key worker occupations and industries.

Further, 90% of key workers were British nationals. EU and non-EU nationals¹ in this workforce make up 6% and 4%, respectively. This pattern was similar when looking at the total UK workforce, where 89% were British, 7% were EU and 4% were non-EU nationals (Figure 1).

When looking at this by country of birth instead of nationality, around 82% of key workers were born in the UK, 6% of key workers were EU-born and 11% were non-EU-born (Figure 1). This includes many non-UK-born who would have obtained British citizenship since moving to the UK.

However, these trends varied when looking at each key worker occupation group (see Section 5: Key worker occupation groups).

Figure 1: 10% of key workers were non-British nationals and 18% of key workers were born outside of the UK

Proportion of workforce who are non-British nationals or non-UK born by workforce type, 2017 to 2019

Notes:

1. This analysis uses the Annual Population Survey (APS) 2017 to 2019 pooled dataset as it provides more robust analysis that is not always possible using the single-year APS.

2. Unknown nationality and country of birth is excluded from the totals.

3. Country groupings are based on those used in the international migration estimates, where for nationality the country of residence groupings were used.

Notes: Key workers and the UK workforce

1. EU groupings exclude British nationals and the UK-born. EU groupings include Irish nationals and Ireland-born. For more information on defining international migrants using nationality and country of birth and specific country groupings, see Section 9: Glossary.

The region¹ with the highest proportion of workers who are non-British nationals between 2017 and 2019 was London; 27% of workers living in London were non-British nationals, with 16% EU and 11% non-EU nationals. The next regions with the highest proportions were the East of England and East Midlands.

These same three regions had the highest proportion of key workers with a non-British nationality.

Use the interactive map to explore the proportion of workers and key workers who were non-British nationals in local areas.¹ These patterns will have been influenced by the concentration of specific industries in some areas more than others as well as the overall demographic profile of a local authority.

Data by regions of the UK and data by country of birth can be found in the accompanying dataset.

Figure 2: Explore the proportion of the UK workforce and key workers who are non-British nationals in your local area

Proportion of workforce who are non-British nationals by local authority and workforce type

Notes:

1. This analysis uses the Annual Population Survey (APS) 2017 to 2019 pooled dataset as it provides more robust analysis that is not always possible using the single-year APS.

2. Estimates relating to statistics based on small sample sizes (less than three) have been suppressed under disclosure threshold rules and are marked with a “*”.

3. This map shows the local authorities where workers live, not their place of work. Unknown addresses were not included in the analysis.

4. Nationality is used to measure the number of non-UK workers and key workers living in a local authority between 2017 and 2019.

5. Northern Ireland statistics were not included in the analysis.

Notes: Local area of working non-British nationals

1. The Annual Population Survey (APS) gathers information on participants’ home addresses. This is used to measure the number of key workers who may work in a local authority.

Based on UK government guidance, eight key worker occupation groups were defined. The share of the non-UK populations was higher in some of the groups than others. Table 1 presents the proportion of key workers in each occupation group by nationality. Data by country of birth are provided in the accompanying dataset.

Between 2017 and 2019, the key worker occupation group with the largest proportion of non-British nationals was food and necessary goods. There were around 1.5 million people who worked in that group, of which 15% were non-British nationals.

During this period, the highest proportions were for EU nationals, who represented 11% of both the food and necessary goods and transport groups. For non-EU nationals, health and social care and utilities and communications groups were those with the highest share, making up 6% of the total number employed in each group.

The key worker occupation group with the largest number of employees was health and social care with 3,205,600 people; 12% (379,100) of those were non-British nationals with an equal split between EU and non-EU nationals (Figure 3). However, there was further variation when looking at the more detailed nationality groupings (see Section 7: Health and social care workers).

When looking at this by country of birth instead of nationality, 22% of the health and social care occupation group were born outside the UK. Of those, 6% were born in the EU and 15% were born outside of the EU.

The food and necessary goods key worker occupation group had the next largest number of employees who were non-British nationals (Figure 3). Whereas for British nationals, education and childcare was the second largest group (see accompanying dataset).

Figure 3: Health and social care was the largest group of non-UK key workers

Number of non-British nationals or non-UK born by key worker occupation group, 2017 to 2019

Notes:

1. This analysis uses the Annual Population Survey (APS) 2017 to 2019 pooled dataset as it provides more robust analysis that is not always possible using the single-year APS.

2. Unknown nationality and country of birth is excluded from the totals.

3. Country groupings are based on those used in the international migration estimates, where for nationality the country of residence groupings were used.

From 2012 to 2019, the number of non-British nationals employed in key worker occupations and industries had grown (from 826,300 to 1,097,100); this is a two percentage point increase in all key workers who were non-British nationals (from 8% to 10%). This was mainly driven by a steady increase in EU nationals working in the health and social care occupation group (from 100,200 to 192,300). The lifting of working restrictions for Bulgaria and Romania (EU2) in 2014 will have contributed to this.

For most key worker occupation groups, there were variations between EU and non-EU national workers over time. Patterns of EU and non-EU nationals followed different trends for all occupation groups except utilities and communication, key public services, and national and local government (Figure 4). Data by country of birth can be found in the accompanying dataset.

Figure 4: The number of EU and non-EU nationals working in key worker occupations has varied over time

Count of EU and non-EU nationals by key worker occupation group, 2012 to 2019

Notes:

1. This analysis uses the Annual Population Survey (APS) 2012 to 2019 single-year datasets.

2. For consistency with other published data sources, nationality has been used. However, it is possible that an individual’s nationality may change over time. Country of birth data can be found in the accompanying dataset.

3. Unknown nationality is excluded from the analysis.

4. Nationality groupings are based country of residence groupings used in the used in the international migration estimates.

In this section, we focus on the largest key worker occupation group, health and social care, providing new insights using the most recent data (2017 to 2019). This builds on analysis on international migration and the health workforce published in August 2019.

Most common health and social care occupations for non-UK workers

There were many different health and social care occupations that the non-UK populations (non-British nationals and non-UK-born) were employed in and considered as key workers. Figure 5 highlights the top 10, based on the total number of all health and social care workers. Data by country of birth can be found in the accompanying dataset.

Care workers and home carers (99,700), nurses (78,200), and medical practitioners (42,300) were the most common health and social care occupations for non-British nationals (based on the total number employed).

Figure 5: Care workers and home carers was the most common health and social care occupation for non-UK workers

Top 10 health and social care occupations for non-British nationals and non-UK-born, 2017 to 2019

Notes:

1. This analysis uses the Annual Population Survey (APS) 2017 to 2019 pooled dataset as it provides more robust analysis that is not always possible using the single-year APS.

2. Totals have been created using Standard Occupational Classifications (SOCs) only. A detailed list of selected SOCs and Standard Industrial Classifications (SICs) are provided in the accompanying dataset.

3. The top 10 occupations are those with the largest number of all health and social care workers.

4. Unknown nationality and country of birth is excluded from the analysis.

5. Country groupings are based on those used in the international migration estimates, where for nationality the country of residence groupings were used.

Table 2 presents the proportion of key workers in each of the top 10 occupations by nationality (data by country of birth are provided in the accompanying dataset). The health and social care occupation with the highest proportion for EU nationals was cleaners and domestics (8%). Whereas, for non-EU nationals this was medical practitioners (9%).

UK region where non-British nationals working in health and social care are living

London was the region with the highest proportion of health and social care workers who were non-British nationals (Table 3). This was followed by the East of England. These patterns will have been influenced by the concentration of specific industries in some areas more than others as well as the overall demographic profile of a local authority.

Data by country of birth can be found in the accompanying dataset.

Country of nationality and birth for those working in health and social care

Between 2017 and 2019, 28% (107,200) of all non-British nationals working in the health and social care occupation group were EU15² nationals. This was followed by Sub-Saharan African nationals (20%, 74,500) and EU8³ nationals (15%, 58,300) (Figure 6).

When looking at this by country of birth instead of nationality, 27% (185,000) of the non-UK-born population working in health and social care were Sub-Saharan African-born, followed by South Asian- (19%, 132,100) and EU15-born (16%, 112,100).

We identified care workers and home carers as the most common health and social care occupation for the non-UK populations. Sub-Saharan African nationals and born had the highest number of the non-UK populations working in this occupation (Figure 6).

Looking at all key worker occupations between 2017 and 2019, 27% (285,800) of all non-British nationals were EU15 nationals, followed by EU8³ and South Asian nationals (Figure 6).

Figure 6: EU15 nationals and Sub-Saharan African-born were the largest non-UK groups working in health and social care

Number of non-British nationals or non-UK-born by occupation group (all key workers, health and social care, and care workers and home carers), 2017 to 2019

Notes:

1. This analysis uses the Annual Population Survey (APS) 2017 to 2019 pooled dataset as it provides more robust analysis that is not always possible using the single-year APS.

2. Estimates relating to statistics based on small sample sizes (less than three) have been suppressed under disclosure threshold rules and are marked with a “*”. Two regions were excluded from the figure because of these reasons: Asia (not otherwise specified) and Rest of the World (not otherwise specified).

3. Unknown nationality and country of birth is excluded from the analysis.

4. Country groupings are based on those used in the international migration estimates, where for nationality the country of residence groupings were used.

Notes: Health and social care workers

1. The Annual Population Survey (APS) gathers information on participants’ home addresses. This is used to measure the number of key workers who may work in a UK region.

2. EU15 excluding the UK, countries include Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden.

3. EU8 countries refers to Czechia (Czech Republic), Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia, which joined the EU at the same time (1 May 2004).

Key worker

There are several ways to estimate the number of key workers. For consistency, we followed the same classification groupings as the analysis on all key workers released in May 2020, which was classed as Experimental Statistics to support the development of our definition. This used a combination of the 2010 Standard Occupational Classifications (SOCs) and 2007 Standard Industrial Classifications (SICs) based on an interpretation of the UK government guidance.

This guidance is for defining who is eligible for childcare places. The Department for Education (DfE) now refer to key workers as “critical workers”, but there are no changes in classification grouping for key workers. Key workers are also defined in the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) guidance on testing eligibility. The DHSC now refer to key workers as “essential workers”.

The definitions used by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are indicative of the potential pool of employees in each key worker occupation group. The guidance is intentionally broad, and it is for employers to decide who is a key worker. Some workers under this definition may be furloughed; this is not captured in this definition.

As part of the global coronavirus (COVID-19) response, other National Statistical Institutes (NSIs) have produced key worker estimates based on their country's definition of what constitutes a key worker. As these figures are based on different policies, methodology and definitions, comparisons made should be treated with caution. The ONS plans to liaise with other NSIs to discuss the possibilities of comparing figures cross-country.

Non-UK populations

This article provides new insights about the characteristics of the non-UK populations who could be considered as key workers in the UK. The Annual Population Survey (APS), our main data source for this analysis, collects information on people’s country of birth and nationality.

Understanding international migration and its contribution to and impact on key worker industries is a complex topic. Identifying and analysing international migrants using nationality and country of birth can provide a different perspective on this topic.

Nationality refers to that stated by the respondent during the APS interview. It identifies foreign nationals or citizens, which is more relevant to the UK visa and immigration system, and who has access to the UK labour market. We focus on this here so that we can understand more recent international migration in the UK labour market and for consistency with both our previous research and administrative data.

Country of birth is the country in which the respondent was born. It is useful to understand the overall and longer-term contribution of international migration to the UK. While country of birth can tell us about a person’s migrant background, it does not give this for subsequent generations (that is, children of the non-UK-born) or the migrant background of previous generations. You can find country of birth within the accompanying dataset and in some of the analysis in this article.

It is possible that an individual’s nationality may change, but the respondent’s country of birth cannot change.

There are three main reasons for differences between nationality and country of birth:

• When people born abroad decide to remain in the UK, they often apply to become British nationals.

• Some people born abroad have British nationality; for example, this may be the case for people whose parents were in the military services and were based abroad when they were born.

• Some people born in the UK to migrant parents take the nationality of their parents.

Country groupings are based on those used in the international migration estimates, where for nationality the country of residence groupings were used.

EU nationality and EU-born groups

EU estimates exclude British nationals and UK-born. Nationals or those born of countries that were EU members prior to 2004, for example, France, Germany and Spain are termed the EU15; Central and Eastern European countries that joined the EU in 2004, for example, Poland are termed the EU8; and EU2 comprises Bulgaria and Romania, which became EU members in 2007.

Data collection and sample size

The Annual Population Survey (APS) is a household survey that combines results from the Labour Force Survey (LFS) and the English, Welsh and Scottish LFS boosts. These boosts increase the size of the sample.

The APS is designed to measure resident population stocks within the UK (the number of people living in the UK on a permanent basis). Respondents to the APS and LFS who are employed are asked questions regarding their occupation and industry.

All analysis has used the three-year pooled APS dataset, which is created by combining data across the years January 2017 to December 2019. Section 6: Changes in non-British nationals as key workers over time is the only exception where single-year APS datasets from 2012 to 2019 have been used to analyse changes over time.

The three-year pooled dataset was designed to provide more robust analysis that is not always possible using the single-year APS. The dataset contains a sample size of around 550,000 respondents. The APS is weighted to the UK population totals to be representative of the whole household population.

Please see LFS user guides and LFS and APS information papers for details of the survey’s design and coverage.

Coverage and variability

The APS is a household survey. As it is not possible to survey all people resident in the UK, these statistics are estimates based on a sample of people living in households and therefore are subject to a margin of uncertainty. The APS does not cover most people living in communal establishments.

The APS is weighted to be representative by age, sex and region and as such has no control totals for country of birth and nationality. The APS sample frame also means there is a longer time lag.

All estimates produced are subject to sampling variability. As the number of people available in the sample gets smaller, the variability of the estimates that we can make from that sample size gets larger. Estimates for small groups, which are based on smaller subsets of the APS sample, are less reliable and tend to be more volatile than for larger aggregated groups. Therefore, users are advised to be cautious when drawing conclusions from estimates that are broken down to smaller groups, for example, by country, nationality, age or local authority.

More quality and methodology information on strengths, limitations, appropriate uses, and how the data were created is available in the APS QMI.

Caution comparing migration estimates from different survey sources

The APS is not designed to measure long-term international migration flows but does give insights into changes in our population. As part of our transformation programme, a number of differences have been identified when making comparisons between migration data from the APS, LFS and International Passenger Survey (IPS). Our report into the coherence of migration data sources discusses the differences in what each survey tells us about migration flows and provides a better understanding of the reasons for these in the wider context of our transformation work.

The APS does not cover most people living in communal establishments, some NHS accommodation or students living in halls of residence who have non-UK-resident parents. As a result, the population totals used in APS estimates are not directly comparable with mid-year population estimates, which refer to the entire UK population.

Caution comparing population by country of birth and nationality estimates with administrative data sources

Not all data sources are comparable, and users should be aware of this before drawing any conclusions. As part of the Government Statistical Service (GSS) Migration Statistics Transformation Programme, we are continuing to improve our understanding of how administrative data can be used to measure migration, the limitations of doing this and how different data sources compare.

Before drawing conclusions based on comparisons between different sources, users should carefully consider the coverage of each source (that is, all people, all people living in households and all applications for a specific service); the date to which the sources refer; and information about the quality of the source. In February 2020, we published an article outlining why the population estimates by country of birth and nationality cannot be directly compared to figures from the EU Settlement Scheme (EUSS). For further information on the differences between these two datasets, please refer to this article.

This article has provided new insights on non-British nationals and non-UK-born in the workforce between 2017 and 2019, focusing on those who could be considered as key workers in the response to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

From January 2021, the UK’s points-based immigration system comes into effect. This means that both EU and non-EU nationals who want to work or study in the UK must meet certain skills and salary thresholds before they can qualify for entry. Under the new Skilled Workers route, there is an element of tradeable points – where jobs are in shortage, where there is a relevant PhD or the applicant is a new entrant to the labour market. The shortage occupation list was recently reviewed by the Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) to reflect the expanded eligibility, and new recommendations for the list were provided.

Therefore, we know there is an increased focus on skills of non-UK workers. We will explore the user need for further analysis on international migration and the UK workforce, including looking at specific sectors or industries.

We welcome your feedback via email, at pop.info@ons.gov.uk.