Reason for international migration, international students update: May 2024

• For the year ending (YE) December 2023, net migration of non-EU international migrants who initially arrived in the UK on a study-related visa decreased, falling to 247,000 compared with our updated estimate of 328,000 in the YE December 2022; this includes those who emigrated but had transitioned onto a different visa type during their time in the UK.

• An increase in emigration and slight decrease in immigration led to a decrease in net migration; in the YE December 2023, 133,000 non-EU international students left the UK (up 42,000 from the YE December 2022), and 379,000 arrived in the UK on a study-related visa (down 40,000 from the YE December 2022).

• Analysis shows long-term international students are staying in the UK longer and transitioning to other visa types, rather than leaving at the end of their studies; 40% of those who arrived in the YE December 2021 transitioned within two years of arrival, compared with 5% of those who arrived in the YE December 2018.

• The proportion of non-EU nationals immigrating to the UK as dependants of someone on a study-related visa has increased over the last five years; from 8% (9,000) of those who arrived on a study-related visa in the YE December 2019 to 27% (102,000) in the YE December 2023.

• Indian and Nigerian nationalities had the largest increases in study-related visas between the YE December 2018 and December 2022; Indian nationality increased from 13,100 to 142,200 and Nigerian nationality increased from 4,300 to 89,800.

• Previously published estimates for the YE December 2022 are revised today; the YE December 2023 estimates published today are provisional and are subject to revision in future publications, as assumptions about length of stay or departure are replaced by data.

International students accounted for nearly two-fifths of non-EU immigration to the UK and almost three-fifths of non-EU emigration from the UK over the past five years (since 2019). Our latest long-term international migration estimates show a recent increase in emigration. If past patterns continue, we expect to see larger numbers of students who immigrated since the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic continue to leave as they complete their studies. However, new government policies introduced in recent years and further announcements of changes to net migration measures could impact the future migration patterns of international students.

Firstly the Graduate visa was introduced on 1 July 2021, which grants permission to stay in the UK for at least two years after successfully completing a course in the UK. More recently, from 1 January 2024 international students are no longer able to bring dependants on all but postgraduate research courses, and courses with government-funded scholarships. This policy change came into effect after the reference period for these estimates.

Students contribute to population change and have an impact on housing and public services, regardless of whether they leave at the end of their studies. They are included in our Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2023 bulletin if they reside in the UK for 12 months or more, as they fall under the United Nations (UN) definition of a long-term migrant. Our Population and migration estimates - exploring alternative definitions: May 2023 article also highlights the challenges of separating out international students in our estimates.

This paper is a continuation of our Reason for international migration, international students update: November 2023 article. It expands on two methods: net migration by initial visa granted (which uses visa type at first arrival to the UK) and the cohort method (which follows the long-term migration patterns of international students over several years), to provide further insights into the characteristics of international students and their dependants identified in our provisional long-term international migration estimates.

At this stage in our research, we can only apply our methods to non-EU nationals (92% of international students and their dependants were non-EU nationals in the year ending (YE) December 2023) as this analysis uses Home Office Borders and Immigration data, which we only have for non-EU nationals currently. More information can be found in our Long-term international migration: quality assuring administrative data methodology.

These provisional estimates are released with the expectation that they may be revised and updated as further, more recent data become available. More information on revisions is available in our provisional long-term international migration estimates.

For analysis on the monthly number of visa applications including those for sponsored study, see the Home Office Monthly monitoring of entry clearance visa applications.

For longer-term analysis that looks at the number of migrants granted leave in the UK each year, and their status at the end of each subsequent year, see the Home Office Migrant journey analysis.

Finally, for an assessment of the impact of the Graduate Route, see the Migration Advisory Committee’s Rapid review of the Graduate route (PDF, 1.47MB).

This method is a net migration estimate for long-term non-EU students which uses visa type at first arrival to the UK. This method is consistent with how we estimate total net migration in our Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2023 bulletin which was published today for the year ending (YE) December 2023. For more information on this method and its strengths and limitations, see our Reason for international migration, international students update: November 2023 article.

Net migration analysis

Net migration of non-EU nationals initially arriving on study-related visas is estimated as 247,000 for the YE December 2023. This is lower than the estimated net migration of 328,000 for the YE December 2022, because of an increase in emigration from 91,000 to 133,000. Immigration has also fallen slightly from the previous year by 40,000, from 419,000 to 379,000. 

Following higher numbers of international migrants who immigrated on a study-related visa in the YE December 2021 and 2022 and given, that in the past the majority of international students arrive, study, then leave, the recent increase in emigration would be expected.

However, analysis of migrant use of the Graduate route from the Home Office shows that the proportion of students granted further leave to remain in the UK, following the completion of their studies, more than tripled between 2019 and 2023. This increased from 18% to 56%, of which 32% were on the Graduate route. This may help explain why levels of emigration have only increased slightly in recent years.

The Migration Advisory Committee’s Rapid review of the Graduate route analysis (PDF, 1.47MB) suggests that around 46% of the first group of people to use the Graduate visa route moved onto other work visas after the expiry of their Graduate visa. However, this may not be representative of future cohorts because of recent government policy changes.

The higher levels of immigration of non-EU students seen from 2021 onwards are likely to be because of a range of factors including post-pandemic recovery, global market factors (such as how universities attract international students) and the introduction of policy changes.

These include the government’s International Education Strategy, launched in 2019, which aims to increase the total number of international students studying in the UK’s higher education system each year to 600,000 by 2030. This target was first met during the 2020 to 2021 academic year. Data from the Home Office suggest that students delayed their arrival, which explains why we saw a greater number of students immigrating in 2022 because of travel restrictions lifting after the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

The proportion of non-EU long-term international migrants who immigrated to the UK as dependants of someone on a study-related visa has also increased over the last five years. In the YE December 2023, 102,000 dependants of students arrived long-term, accounting for 27% of the total number arriving to study (379,000). This compares with 9,000 (8%) of the total number arriving on a study-related visa in the YE December 2019 (120,000).

From 1 January 2024, international students are no longer able to bring dependants on all but postgraduate research courses and courses with government-funded scholarships. More information can be found in the Changes to student visa route will reduce net migration news story on the Gov.uk website.

Recent Home Office data show that applications for main applicants on the student visa fell by 15% to 34,000 visas, when comparing January to March 2024 with January to March 2023, and dependant applications fell by 80% to 6,700. The full effect of recent policy changes will not be seen until the peak in student applications for the next academic year (August and September 2024).

This method follows a group of long-term non-EU migrants who initially arrived in the UK on a study or a study dependant visa. Their status is observed over time (on the reference date of interest in the following years), looking at whether they have emigrated (categorised as “emigrated”), remained on their original visa (categorised as “not emigrated”), or transitioned to a different visa type (categorised as “transitioned”).

For more information on this method, see our Reason for international migration, international students update: November 2023 article. This method is similar to the approach the Home Office has taken in its Migrant journey publications. However, the cohort method only includes those who take up their visa and applies an adjustment for those who leave before they have been here a year. This matches our Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2023 bulletin and is in line with the UN definition of a long-term migrant.

Overall migration status analysis

Figure 2: The proportion of students staying in the country without transitioning to a new visa after a year of arrival has remained consistent, while the number transitioning to a new visa has grown

The migration status to the UK of the years ending (YE) December 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 cohorts, between YE December 2019 and YE December 2023

Notes:

1. Because the statistics are in development and provisional, numbers have been rounded to the nearest whole percentage. The sum of individual numbers may not equal totals seen elsewhere.

2. YE: Year ending.

3. Study-related visa arrivals include those who arrive on study and study dependant visas.

4. Estimates are for non-EU nationals only.

5. These estimates are for long-term international migrants only and do not include short-term migrants.

6. Emigrated in previous years refers to those who have emigrated in a different year.

7. A small number of records for the YE December 2020 and YE December 2021 arrivals could not be categorised because of the use of updated Home Office Borders and Immigration data for the latest two time periods to maintain consistency with published long-term international migration estimates.

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As seen in Figure 2, the number of students who stay in the country without transitioning to a new visa after one year of arrival has increased year on year since 2018. This does not include those who immigrated in the YE December 2020, where there was a slight decrease when 72% stayed in the country without transitioning to a new visa.

However, in total the number of people who stay in the country without transitioning to a new visa after one year of arrival has increased by 13 percentage points since the year ending (YE) December 2018; 67% of those who immigrated in 2018 remained in the country after one year compared with 80% of those who immigrated in the YE December 2022.

More students have been staying in the country and transitioning onto a new visa since 2018. The highest percentage of non-EU long-term international migrants who transitioned from a study-related visa to a new visa occurred after three years for those who immigrated in the YE December 2020 (31%). This is higher than the 16% who transitioned after three years for the YE December 2019 cohort and the 7% for the YE December 2018 cohort.

This could be explained by the introduction of the Graduate visa in July 2021, which made it easier for graduating students to remain in the UK for at least two years, once they completed their course. Analysis from the Migration Advisory Committee’s Rapid review of the Graduate route (PDF, 1.47MB) found that since the introduction of the Graduate visa there has been a rapid increase in the number of visas granted. In the first full year since its introduction, 66,000 Graduate visas were granted; this more than doubled to 144,000 visas in 2023.

There has also been an increase in the length of time students remain in the UK before emigrating. In more recent years, more non-EU international migrants that arrived on study-related visas are remaining in the country longer than those who immigrated before the YE December 2020.

When comparing those who immigrated in the YE December 2020 and 2021 with those who immigrated earlier, a smaller percentage are emigrating within two years. In the YE December 2018 cohort, 62% (78,800) of students and student dependants had emigrated within two years compared with 31% (80,800) of the YE December 2021 cohort. For the YE December 2018 cohort, the majority had emigrated within five years of arrival (80%).

When looking at the percentage of non-EU nationals arriving in the UK on study-related visas who emigrate after one year, this has also decreased from 31% of those who immigrated in the YE December 2018, to 13% of those who immigrated in the YE December 2022. The YE December 2020 cohort had the smallest percentage to emigrate after one year (11%). However, this could be attributed to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic as travel restrictions were in place in 2020.

Visa breakdown analysis

The majority of non-EU long-term international migrants on study-related visas who remain in the UK after completing their studies do so to work. Of those who arrived in the YE December 2022, 22,800 (5%) transitioned to a work visa within one year of arrival into the UK. This is a substantial increase from the 1,700 (1%) of the 2018 cohort and the 800 (less than 1%) of the 2019 cohort. However, those who immigrated in the YE December 2020 and 2021 had the highest proportions of migrants transitioning to a work visa within one year of arrival; this was 7% (7,600) of the 2020 cohort and 11% (30,100) of the 2021 cohort.

Figure 3: A higher proportion of people transitioned onto work-related visas in more recent years

All visa transitions for those who arrived in the UK on a study-related visa in the years ending (YE) December 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 cohorts, between YE December 2019 and YE December 2022

Notes:

1. Because the statistics are in development and provisional, numbers have been rounded to the nearest whole percentage. The sum of individual numbers may not equal totals seen elsewhere.

2. YE: Year ending.

3. Study-related visa arrivals include those who arrive on study and study dependant visas.

4. Work-dependant visas and graduate visas are included in work visas.

5. Estimates are for non-EU nationals only.

6. These estimates are for long-term international migrants only and do not include short-term migrants.

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The higher proportion of transitions could be because of recent policy changes aimed at retaining students. This includes the Graduate visa which was launched in 2021 (categorised as a work visa). This requires students to complete their course (if it is fewer than 12 months) or to study in the UK for at least 12 months on an eligible course (if the course is longer than 12 months).

The Migration Advisory Committee’s Rapid review of the Graduate route (PDF, 1.47MB) found that of the main applicants on the Graduate visa in 2023, 99% held a two-year visa having completed an undergraduate or Master’s degree (or equivalent), while 1% held a three-year visa as they had completed a PhD or other doctoral qualification or equivalent.

Transitions from a student visa to a family, humanitarian or “other’” visa within one year of arrival in the UK has remained consistent and a very small proportion of total student visa transitions since 2018.

Demographic information, such as date of birth, sex and nationality, is linked for each immigration cohort. The age of each international student and their dependants when they initially entered the UK is calculated using their date of birth and immigration year. This is used to provide age, sex and top 10 nationality breakdowns for each immigration cohort.

Nationality analysis

Figure 4: Non-EU long-term international migrants arriving in the UK on a study-related visa from India and Nigeria have increased significantly since 2018 to 2022

Top five nationalities of non-EU long-term international migrants arriving in the UK on a study-related visa for the years ending (YE) December 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022

Notes:

1. Because the statistics are in development and provisional, numbers have been rounded to the nearest hundred. The sum of individual numbers may not equal totals seen elsewhere.

2. YE: Year ending.

3. These estimates are for long-term international migrants only and do not include short-term migrants.

4. A small number of records for the YE December 2020 and YE December 2021 arrivals could not be categorised because of the use of updated Home Office Borders and Immigration data for the latest two time periods to maintain consistency with published long-term international migration estimates. These records are not included in nationality breakdowns.

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The most common primary nationalities for non-EU long-term migrants arriving in the UK on a study-related visa over the last five years from year ending (YE) December 2018 to YE December 2022 were Chinese, Indian and Nigerian.

The number of non-EU long-term migrants arriving in the UK on a study-related visa with Chinese nationality remained relatively stable. However, the number of students and dependants of those on a student visa with Indian nationality increased from 13,100 (10% of the immigration cohort) in YE December 2018 to 142,200 (34% of the immigration cohort) in YE December 2022.

Students and student dependants with Nigerian nationality also increased from 4,300 (3% of the immigration cohort) in YE December 2018 to 89,800 (21% of the immigration cohort) in YE December 2022. Finally, the number of long-term non-EU students and dependants of those on a study-related visa arriving in the UK with Pakistani nationality increased from 2,700 (2% of the immigration cohort) in YE December 2018 to 26,200 (6% of the immigration cohort) in YE December 2022.

Preliminary analysis indicates that there were an increasing number and proportion of long-term student dependants arriving in the UK with Indian, Nigerian and Pakistani nationalities from YE December 2018 to YE December 2022.

There are multiple factors that may explain the increased number of non-EU long-term students arriving in the UK from India, Nigeria and Pakistan. These nationalities account for 70% of all graduate visas granted (PDF, 1.47MB) in 2023, with India accounting for over 40%.

Another is the International Education Strategy, which was launched on 16 March 2019 by the Department for Education and the Department for International Trade. This set out the government’s aim to increase the total number of international students choosing to study in the UK higher education system each year to 600,000 by 2030 and increase the value of education exports to £35 billion per year by 2030. India, Nigeria and Pakistan were considered headline markets for Study UK, funded by the British Council who offer GREAT Scholarships focusing on promoting UK education in important international student recruitment markets.

Analysis from The Migration Observatory suggests we may also see an increase in non-EU migrants arriving on a study-related visa because of a financial incentive for universities to attract more international students. A significant proportion of universities’ income comes from international students as their fees are significantly higher than those paid by domestic students.

This analysis also suggested that the UK may have been a more appealing destination during and immediately after the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic for international students as other countries, such as the United States, Canada and Australia, implemented stricter restrictions on entry and visas. These resulted in long delays and higher denial rates whereas the UK remained more accessible to international students.

Age and sex analysis

Figure 5: The largest differences between the sexes are found in the 18 to 25 years age group for all five cohorts

Age and sex breakdown of those on a student and student-dependant visa in the years ending (YE) December 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022

Notes:

1. Because the statistics are in development and provisional, numbers have been rounded to the nearest whole percentage. The sum of individual numbers may not equal totals seen elsewhere.

2. YE: Year ending.

3. These estimates are for long-term international migrants only and do not include short-term migrants.

4. A small number of records for the YE December 2020 and YE December 2021 arrivals could not be categorised because of the use of updated Home Office Borders and Immigration data for the latest two time periods to maintain consistency with published long-term international migration estimates. These records are not included in age and sex breakdowns.

   Download the data

In YE December 2018, a slight majority (56%) of non-EU long-term international migrants initially arriving in the UK on a study-related visa were female. The largest difference between the numbers of males and females was seen in the 18 to 25 years age group where there were more females, by 11 percentage points.

However, from YE December 2020 onwards, men accounted for a slightly larger proportion of non-EU long-term international migrants initially arriving in the UK on a study-related visa at every age group. The largest differences were again seen in the 18 to 25 years age group. The largest overall difference in the proportion of males and females was for those who immigrated in the YE December 2020 cohort, in which 57% were males.

Preliminary analysis indicates that the difference in the sex distribution in more recent years could be because of the increase in long-term migrants arriving in the UK on a study-related visa from Nigeria, India and Pakistan. Those arriving with these nationalities are predominantly male in more recent years, which could explain this difference. 

Cohort

A group of student and student dependants’ long-term migrants that arrived in the UK in the same year ending period.

Dependants

A person or family group who enter the UK as a dependent family member of someone who has been granted permission on a work or study route or has settled in the UK.

Home Office Borders and Immigration data

Combines data from different administrative sources to link an individual’s travel in or out of the UK with their immigration history. This system has data for all non-European Economic Area (non-EEA) visa holders.

“Humanitarian” reason for migration

For non-EU migrants, the reason for migration is based on their visa type. “Humanitarian” reason includes people who immigrated into the UK under visas classified as:

• protection
• British national (overseas) (BN(O))
• Ukrainian support schemes
• asylum applicants

International student

An international student is currently defined as someone who arrives in the UK to study and remains for a period of 12 months or more. In line with the current UN definition of a long-term migrant, international students are included in our estimates of long-term immigration.

Long-term international migration

Long-term international migration (LTIM) statistics estimate the flow (or movement) of migrants to and from the UK. This article uses the UN-recommended definition of a long-term international migrant, as explained in the Recommendations on Statistics of International Migration paper (PDF, 5MB). It is defined as “A person who moves to a country other than that of his or her usual residence for a period of at least a year (12 months), so that the country of destination effectively becomes his or her new country of usual residence.”

A long-term international immigrant in this article refers to a person who has moved to the UK from abroad for a period of at least a year.

A long-term international emigrant in this article refers to a person who has left the UK to go to another country for a period of at least a year.

Nationality

Nationality of a country is a legal status that usually gives a person a particular set of rights relating to that country.

Net migration

Net migration is the difference between the number of people coming to live in the UK (immigration) and the number of people leaving to live elsewhere (emigration). When more people are arriving in the UK than leaving, net migration is above zero and so adds to the non-UK population.

Non-EU

Non-EU is the sum of the rest of the world, including the rest of Europe. British nationals are excluded from these numbers.

“Other” reason for migration

For non-EU migrants, the reason for migration is based on their visa type. “Other” reason includes people who immigrated into the UK under visas classified as:

• admin
• visit
• other
• settlement
• those that did not fit into any of our designated classifications

Official statistics in development

These statistics are labelled as “official statistics in development”. Until September 2023, these were called “experimental statistics”. Read more about the change in the Office for Statistics Regulation's Guide to official statistics in development.

Estimates for the most recent time period in our data series (year ending (YE) December 2023) are provisional and provide users with an early indication of migration during this period. As outlined in our Population and International Migration Statistics Revisions Policy methodology, they are released with the expectation that they may be revised and updated as further and more recent data become available. We are also continuing to develop and refine our methods for measuring long-term international migration, including international students.

More information on revisions is available in Long-term international migration, provisional: year ending December 2023.

Methods

We use Home Office Borders and Immigration (HOBI) data that combine visa and travel information to link an individual’s travel movements into and out of the country. More information is provided within the User Guide to: Immigration system statistics on GOV.UK.

To estimate non-EU immigration, we have developed a method that uses an individual’s first arrival and last departure dates to approximate their length of stay in the UK within the period for which they have a valid visa. Individuals whose stay lasts 12 months or more are classified as long-term immigrants.

For emigration, we identify previous long-term immigrants with a last departure from the UK during the reference period and record them as long-term emigrants if they do not return to the UK within 12 months, or if they only return for a short-term stay.

Information on the type of visa held in HOBI data is used to identify those people who initially arrived on a study-related visa. More detailed information can be found in our Methods to produce provisional long-term international migration estimates methodology.

Since November 2023 we have developed our methods to use additional data covering the period up to year ending (YE) December 2023. We have also introduced additional breakdowns of long-term international migrants arriving in the UK on study-related visas by nationality, age and sex.

We will continue to update our measures as we receive more data, further developing our methods and collaborating with the Home Office to provide additional insights. We will continue to learn from student behaviours to improve our assumptions and look to update our Adjustment method, not included in this article, which explores immediate behaviours of international students following the expiry of their initial study visa.

In addition, we aim to develop our research to provide more detailed disaggregation and breakdowns, as well as extending its coverage and investigating the use of additional data sources. For example, this may include:

• further analysis of length of stay and patterns of movement by characteristics such as age, sex and nationality
• analysis of length of stay by different visa types (for example, dependants, graduate route) and their impact on net migration
• breakdowns by geographic areas within the UK such as local authority of study and residence or change of location within the UK when transitioning from study to other visa types
• breakdowns by sponsor university, degree level and type (for example, undergraduate versus postgraduate, or science, engineering, technology and mathematics (STEM) versus non-STEM courses)
• research into extending our methods to cover all nationalities, including investigating the use of Home Office Borders and Immigration data for EU nationals to additionally provide headline estimates and more detailed breakdowns for this group
• investigating the use of additional data sources such as the graduate outcomes survey and Higher Education Statistics Agency data

We want your feedback

Your feedback is important. We want to hear what our users need from the development of these statistics to ensure we are providing the best insights on population and migration.

Depending on user need and feedback, we are proposing to produce:

• an annual report that updates on our reason for migration research
• leading indicators for quantifying international students that meet specific user needs

Please get in touch with any feedback by emailing pop.info@ons.gov.uk.