ONS Population Statistics Newsletter: Quarter 3 (July to Sept) 2016

1. Latest news

What has happened this quarter in population statistics?

Subnational population projections

In August 2016, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published subnational population projections (SNPP) supplementary analyses giving more detail to help stakeholders understand further the 2014-based SNPPs published in May 2016. We are keen to hear your feedback on whether these analyses are useful and whether there is anything more we could be doing.

The following analyses are part of the publication, which was released on 4 August 2016:

How the population is projected to age – an analysis of how English regions and local authorities (LAs) are projected to age
Understanding projected population change at the local authority level – a short report which uses some case studies to look at the available data and tools for comparing population change in different LAs
Comparing subnational population projections to mid-year estimates for 2015 – a report which compares the first year of the 2014-based population projections with the mid-2015 population estimates

Also published on the same day was a research report on variant subnational population projections.

This report and accompanying figures were published for the first time and serve as a proof of concept. We would like you to review and provide feedback on the concept of producing variant subnational population projections. In particular, whether the variants described in this report would be useful to you, what other variants you may find useful and what challenges you think they might raise. Your feedback will provide useful input to the future redevelopment project of the subnational projections production system, which is due to be undertaken. Please send your comments to projections@ons.gov.uk.

Migration

There has been a lot of data released by the Migration Statistics Unit in the past few months. Please note that none of the data released covers the period after the EU referendum.

The most recent release (25 August 2016) of migration data provided estimates of long-term international migration. These showed that net long-term international migration for the year ending March 2016 was 327,000. Immigration of EU citizens (268,000) remains lower than that of non-EU citizens (282,000) and work is the most common main reason for migration (303,000).

Also released on the same day were estimates of the population of the UK in 2015, split by country of birth and nationality, in both summary tables and underlying datasheets. The data showed that 1 in 8 of the UK population were born abroad and 1 in 12 held non-British nationality. Poland is now the most common non-UK country of birth for the first time, having overtaken India and Polish is the most common non-British nationality.

And finally the Local Area Migration Indicators suite was updated. This spreadsheet brings together different migration-related data sources at local authority level.

On 1 December 2016, long-term international migration data for the year ending June 2016 will be released, as well as updated final tables of Long-Term International Migration and International Passenger Survey data for calendar year 2015.

Population estimates

In July, the Population Estimates Unit published their first set of supporting files as part of the mid-2015 population estimates. Instead of updating existing ad hoc tables every year, we've reformatted 8 individual ad hoc tables into 2 tables providing time series data for the UK, constituent countries and regions, 1838 to 2015.

This data access route complements the existing data explorer available on our website, which has estimates from 2002 onwards and NOMIS, which has estimates from 1981 onwards. The tables are now much more accessible than their previous location as ad hocs, which means we receive fewer customer calls asking to be guided to this data.

In October we published the national population estimates for England and Wales broken down into small geographical areas (super output areas, health geographies, wards, Parliamentary constituencies and national parks): Small area population estimates mid-2015

Population Statistics Research Unit

The Population Statistics Research Unit welcome comments on their proposed work and any suggestions for other research and development, which would increase the value of their statistics to you.

Population estimates by marital status and living arrangements

We are working to establish if we can produce robust population estimates by marital status for England and Wales separately (currently these are published for England and Wales combined). We will inform users of the outcome of this work and publish separate estimates for England and Wales if these are shown to be robust, in the next publication in July 2017.

Demographic Analysis Unit

October saw the publication of experimental official statistics to include sexual identity in the UK by sex, region and age group, sourced from the Annual Population Survey: Sexual identity 2015 calendar year

This showed that in 2015, 1.7% of the UK population identified themselves as lesbian, gay or bisexual (LGB). More males (2.0%) than females (1.5%) identified themselves as LGB in 2015. Of the population aged 16 to 24, there were 3.3% identifying themselves as LGB, the largest percentage within any age group in 2015. The population who identified as LGB in 2015 were most likely to be single, never married or civil partnered, at 68.2%.

Published on 5 November the Families and Households bulletin presented annual statistics for 1996 to 2015 on the number of families by type, people in families by type and children in families by type. Types of family include married or civil partner couple families, cohabiting couple families and lone parent families. A family is a married, civil partnered or cohabiting couple with or without children, or a lone parent with at least one child who live at the same address. Children may be dependent or non-dependent.

Childbearing for Women born in Different Years (published 17 November) - cohort fertility analysis allows the fertility experience of a group of women sharing the same birth year (a 'cohort') to be traced through time and compared with the experience of other cohorts.

Divisional news

Population Statistics Division (PSD) produces statistics and analysis related to population, migration and demography.

Ensuring that population statistics remain of high quality is one of our main objectives so that they:

help improve decision making both inside and outside government
have a positive impact
continue to meet the need of a diverse range of users

To help us achieve this we have created 2 new teams within the division: the Stakeholder Engagement Team and the Impact Team.

The Stakeholder Engagement Team aims to promote PSD, coordinating and improving communication both internally and externally. It is responsible for identifying new emerging policy needs for population statistics ensuring that our outputs and analysis remain relevant to these needs. They will work closely with other government departments to ensure that policy needs are supported. Calls to what was the population estimates telephone number (+44 (0)1329 444661) now go to the Stakeholder Engagement Team.

The Impact Team will work closely with stakeholder engagement to carry out analysis to inform emerging policy needs and filling any gaps in our analytical portfolio. They will assess the latest demographic data and produce quarterly reports to inform our stakeholders of the latest demographic trends.

What will be happening in the next quarter?

PSD releases: Quarter 4 (October to December 2016)

In addition to the releases already mentioned above the quarter will see the following.

Migration statistics quarterly report, provisional International Passenger Survey, Long-Term International Migration year to Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2016 - 1 December

Eurostat migration data collection 2014 calendar year - Dec 2016 or Jan 2017 (provisional)

Back to table of contents

Tell us whether you accept cookies