National population projections: 2018-based
Summary
The potential future population size of the UK and its constituent countries. This is widely used in planning, for example, fiscal projections, health, education and pensions.
Publications
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National population projections: 2018-based
The potential future population size of the UK and its constituent countries. This is widely used in planning, for example, fiscal projections, health, education and pensions.
Data
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Low life expectancy variant - Scotland summary
Low life expectancy variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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0% future EU migration variant - England summary
The 0% future EU migration variant projection for England - population by age group, components of change and summary statistics. Not National Statistics.
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High population variant - England population in age groups
High population variant projection for England - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Young age structure variant - Scotland population in age groups
Young age structure variant projection for Scotland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Low migration variant - Wales population in age groups
Low migration variant projection for Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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High migration variant - Northern Ireland summary
High migration variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Young age structure variant - Great Britain population in age groups
Young age structure variant projection for Great Britain - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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High life expectancy variant - Scotland summary
High life expectancy variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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0% future EU migration variant - England population in age groups
The 0% future EU migration variant projection for England - population by five-year age groups and sex. Not National Statistics.
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Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - England population in age groups
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for England - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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No mortality improvement variant - Wales population in age groups
No mortality improvement variant projection for Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Young age structure variant - Northern Ireland population in age groups
Young age structure variant projection for Northern Ireland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Principal projection - Wales summary
Principal projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Low migration variant - Great Britain population in age groups
Low migration variant projection for Great Britain - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Constant fertility variant - Scotland summary
Constant fertility variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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High fertility variant - Wales summary
High fertility variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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High life expectancy variant - Northern Ireland population in age groups
High life expectancy variant projection for Northern Ireland - Population by five year age groups and sex.
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50% future EU migration variant - Great Britain summary
The 50% future EU migration variant projection for Great Britain - population by age group, components of change and summary statistics. Not National Statistics.
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Low migration variant - Scotland population in age groups
Low migration variant projection for Scotland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Low life expectancy variant - England population in age groups
Low life expectancy variant projection for England - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Principal projection - England population in age groups
Principal projection for England - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - UK summary
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Constant fertility and no mortality improvement variant - Wales summary
No change variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Low migration variant - England summary
Low migration variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Low life expectancy variant - Wales population in age groups
Low life expectancy variant projection for Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Old age structure variant - Wales population in age groups
Old age structure variant projection for Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Low fertility variant - England population in age groups
Low fertility variant projection for England - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Principal projection - Scotland summary
Principal projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Young age structure variant - Scotland summary
Young age structure variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - Wales population in age groups
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Low fertility variant - England summary
Low fertility variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - Northern Ireland population in age groups
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for Northern Ireland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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High migration variant - Great Britain summary
High migration variant projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Low migration variant - Wales summary
Low migration variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Zipped population projections data files, Northern Ireland
Open data for Northern Ireland principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
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0% future EU migration variant - Great Britain summary
The 0% future EU migration variant projection for Great Britain - population by age group, components of change and summary statistics. Not National Statistics.
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Replacement fertility variant - England population in age groups
Replacement fertility variant projection for England - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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High life expectancy variant - UK population in age groups
High life expectancy variant projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Constant fertility variant - Wales summary
Constant fertility variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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High population variant - Scotland summary
High population variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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50% future EU migration variant - UK population in age groups
The 50% future EU migration variant projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex. Not National Statistics.
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Principal projection - Great Britain population in age groups
Principal projection for Great Britain - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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High migration variant - UK summary
High migration variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Low population variant - UK population in age groups
Low population variant projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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High fertility variant - England summary
High fertility variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Principal projection - Scotland population in age groups
Principal projection for Scotland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - Scotland summary
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Low migration variant - Scotland summary
Low migration variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Low fertility variant - Northern Ireland summary
Low fertility variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Constant fertility and no mortality improvement variant - Northern Ireland population in age groups
No change variant projection for Northern Ireland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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High population variant - Northern Ireland population in age groups
High population variant projection for Northern Ireland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Constant fertility and no mortality improvement variant - Wales population in age groups
No change variant projection for Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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No mortality improvement variant - UK summary
No mortality improvement variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Young age structure variant - Great Britain summary
Young age structure variant projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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No mortality improvement variant - England summary
No mortality improvement variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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0% future EU migration variant - UK summary
The 0% future EU migration variant projection for the UK - population by age group, components of change and summary statistics. Not National Statistics.
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Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - England summary
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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50% future EU migration variant - England summary
The 50% future EU migration variant projection for England - population by age group, components of change and summary statistics. Not National Statistics.
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Replacement fertility variant - Northern Ireland population in age groups
Replacement fertility variant projection for Northern Ireland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Low migration variant - Northern Ireland summary
Low migration variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Old age structure variant - UK summary
Old age structure variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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50% future EU migration variant - Scotland summary
The 50% future EU migration variant projection for Scotland - population by age group, components of change and summary statistics. Not National Statistics.
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Low population variant - England population in age groups
Low population variant projection for England - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Principal projection - England and Wales summary
Principal projection for England and Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - Scotland population in age groups
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for Scotland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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High migration variant - Great Britain population in age groups
High migration variant projection for Great Britain - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Low population variant - Scotland population in age groups
Low population variant projection for Scotland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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0% future EU migration variant - Great Britain population in age groups
The 0% future EU migration variant projection for Great Britain - population by five-year age groups and sex. Not National Statistics.
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Low fertility variant - Scotland summary
Low fertility variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Low fertility variant - Wales population in age groups
Low fertility variant projection for Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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0% future EU migration variant - Northern Ireland summary
The 0% future EU migration variant projection for Northern Ireland - population by age group, components of change and summary statistics. Not National Statistics.
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Replacement fertility variant - Wales summary
Replacement fertility variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Low population variant - Northern Ireland summary
Low population variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Young age structure variant - UK summary
Young age structure variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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High population variant - Wales summary
High population variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Low migration variant - UK summary
Low migration variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Low population variant - Northern Ireland population in age groups
Low population variant projection for Northern Ireland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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High fertility variant - UK population in age groups
High fertility variant projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Replacement fertility variant - UK population in age groups
Replacement fertility variant projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Constant fertility and no mortality improvement variant - England population in age groups
No change variant projection for England - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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No mortality improvement variant - Wales summary
No mortality improvement variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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0% future EU migration variant - Wales summary
The 0% future EU migration variant projection for Wales - population by age group, components of change and summary statistics. Not National Statistics.
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Low fertility variant - UK population in age groups
Low fertility variant projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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High population variant - England summary
High population variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Young age structure variant - Northern Ireland summary
Young age structure variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Old age structure variant - Northern Ireland population in age groups
Old age structure variant projection for Northern Ireland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Low fertility variant - UK summary
Low fertility variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Zipped population projections data files, Great Britain and England and Wales
Open data for Great Britain and England and Wales principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
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High fertility variant - England population in age groups
High fertility variant projection for England - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Constant fertility and no mortality improvement variant - England summary
No change variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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High population variant - Wales population in age groups
High population variant projection for Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Low migration variant - Northern Ireland population in age groups
Low migration variant projection for Northern Ireland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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High life expectancy variant - Northern Ireland summary
High life expectancy variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Low life expectancy variant - Scotland population in age groups
Low life expectancy variant projection for Scotland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Principal projection - Northern Ireland summary
Principal projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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High population variant - Scotland population in age groups
High population variant projection for Scotland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Constant fertility and no mortality improvement variant - UK population in age groups
No change variant projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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High migration variant - Scotland summary
High migration variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Low migration variant - UK population in age groups
Low migration variant projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Principal projection - UK summary
Principal projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Principal projection - Great Britain summary
Principal projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - Wales summary
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Low fertility variant - Scotland population in age groups
Low fertility variant projection for Scotland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Principal projection - Wales population in age groups
Principal projection for Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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High migration variant - UK population in age groups
High migration variant projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Principal projection - England and Wales population in age groups
Principal projection for England and Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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50% future EU migration variant - Wales summary
The 50% future EU migration variant projection for Wales - population by age group, components of change and summary statistics. Not National Statistics.
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Old age structure variant - Great Britain population in age groups
Old age structure variant projection for Great Britain - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Replacement fertility variant - England summary
Replacement fertility variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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High population variant - UK population in age groups
High population variant projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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High life expectancy variant - Wales summary
High life expectancy variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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No mortality improvement variant - England population in age groups
No mortality improvement variant projection for England - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Constant fertility and no mortality improvement variant - Scotland population in age groups
No change variant projection for Scotland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Zipped population projections data files, Wales
Open data for Wales principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
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No mortality improvement variant - UK population in age groups
No mortality improvement variant projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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High fertility variant - Wales population in age groups
High fertility variant projection for Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Old age structure variant - UK population in age groups
Old age structure variant projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Low fertility variant - Wales summary
Low fertility variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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High migration variant - Wales summary
High migration variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Replacement fertility variant - Wales population in age groups
Replacement fertility variant projection for Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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0% future EU migration variant - Wales population in age groups
The 0% future EU migration variant projection for Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex. Not National Statistics.
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50% future EU migration variant - UK summary
The 50% future EU migration variant projection for the UK - population by age group, components of change and summary statistics. Not National Statistics.
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Low life expectancy variant - Northern Ireland summary
Low life expectancy variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Low population variant - Wales population in age groups
Low population variant projection for Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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High population variant - UK summary
High population variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Low life expectancy variant - Northern Ireland population in age groups
Low life expectancy variant projection for Northern Ireland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Low population variant - Scotland summary
Low population variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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No mortality improvement variant - Scotland population in age groups
No mortality improvement variant projection for Scotland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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No mortality improvement variant - Northern Ireland summary
No mortality improvement variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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High life expectancy variant - England population in age groups
High life expectancy variant projection for England - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Replacement fertility variant - Northern Ireland summary
Replacement fertility variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Constant fertility and no mortality improvement variant - Scotland summary
No change variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Young age structure variant - Wales population in age groups
Young age structure variant projection for Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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High population variant - Northern Ireland summary
High population variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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High fertility variant - UK summary
High fertility variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Replacement fertility variant - Scotland population in age groups
Replacement fertility variant projection for Scotland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Old age structure variant - Wales summary
Old age structure variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Constant fertility variant - England summary
Constant fertility variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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High fertility variant - Scotland population in age groups
High fertility variant projection for Scotland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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High migration variant - Northern Ireland population in age groups
High migration variant projection for Northern Ireland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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High life expectancy variant - England summary
High life expectancy variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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50% future EU migration variant - Northern Ireland population in age groups
The 50% future EU migration variant projection for Northern Ireland - population by five-year age groups and sex. Not National Statistics.
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Old age structure variant - Scotland summary
Old age structure variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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50% future EU migration variant - Scotland population in age groups
The 50% future EU migration variant projection for Scotland - population by five-year age groups and sex. Not National Statistics.
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Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - Northern Ireland summary
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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0% future EU migration variant - Scotland population in age groups
The 0% future EU migration variant projection for Scotland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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No mortality improvement variant - Northern Ireland population in age groups
No mortality improvement variant projection for Northern Ireland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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No mortality improvement variant - Scotland summary
No mortality improvement variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Constant fertility variant - Northern Ireland summary
Constant fertility variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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50% future EU migration variant - Great Britain population in age groups
The 50% future EU migration variant projection for Great Britain - population by five-year age groups and sex. Not National Statistics.
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High life expectancy variant - UK summary
High life expectancy variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Low migration variant - England population in age groups
Low migration variant projection for England - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Constant fertility variant - UK summary
Constant fertility variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Principal projection - England summary
Principal projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Young age structure variant - Wales summary
Young age structure variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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National population projections table of contents
Tools to locate the dataset tables and supporting documentation for the 2014, 2016, 2018 and 2020-based interim national population projections. Contains links to the principal and (where available) variant projections for the UK and constituent countries for 100 years ahead.
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High fertility variant - Northern Ireland summary
High fertility variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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High life expectancy variant - Scotland population in age groups
High life expectancy variant projection for Scotland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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High migration variant - England summary
High migration variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Old age structure variant - Northern Ireland summary
Old age structure variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Zero net migration (natural change only) variant - UK population in age groups
Zero net migration (natural change only) variant projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Zipped population projections data files, Scotland
Open data for Scotland principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
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Low migration variant - Great Britain summary
Low migration variant projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Principal projection - Northern Ireland population in age groups
Principal projection for Northern Ireland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Low life expectancy variant - UK population in age groups
Low life expectancy variant projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Old age structure variant - Great Britain summary
Old age structure variant projection for Great Britain including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Low life expectancy variant - UK summary
Low life expectancy variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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High fertility variant - Northern Ireland population in age groups
High fertility variant projection for Northern Ireland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Constant fertility and no mortality improvement variant - Northern Ireland summary
No change variant projection for Northern Ireland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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High fertility variant - Scotland summary
High fertility variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Low population variant - UK summary
Low population variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Low life expectancy variant - Wales summary
Low life expectancy variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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50% future EU migration variant - England population in age groups
The 50% future EU migration variant projection for England - population by five-year age groups and sex. Not National Statistics.
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Young age structure variant - England summary
Young age structure variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Zipped population projections data files, England
Open data for England principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
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Zipped population projections data files, UK
Open data for UK principal and variant projections. Single year of age and sex with underlying data.
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50% future EU migration variant - Northern Ireland summary
The 50% future EU migration variant projection for Northern Ireland - population by age group, components of change, summary statistics. Not National Statistics.
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High life expectancy variant - Wales population in age groups
High life expectancy variant projection for Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Low life expectancy variant - England summary
Low life expectancy variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Low fertility variant - Northern Ireland population in age groups
Low fertility variant projection for Northern Ireland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Young age structure variant - England population in age groups
Young age structure variant projection for England - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Low population variant - Wales summary
Low population variant projection for Wales including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Replacement fertility variant - Scotland summary
Replacement fertility variant projection for Scotland including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Young age structure variant - UK population in age groups
Young age structure variant projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Low population variant - England summary
Low population variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Replacement fertility variant - UK summary
Replacement fertility variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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Principal projection - UK population in age groups
Principal projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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High migration variant - Wales population in age groups
High migration variant projection for Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Old age structure variant - Scotland population in age groups
Old age structure variant projection for Scotland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Constant fertility and no mortality improvement variant - UK summary
No change variant projection for the UK including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
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0% future EU migration variant - UK population in age groups
The 0% future EU migration variant projection for the UK - population by five-year age groups and sex. Not National Statistics.
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50% future EU migration variant - Wales population in age groups
The 50% future EU migration variant projection for Wales - population by five-year age groups and sex. Not National Statistics.
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Old age structure variant - England population in age groups
Old age structure variant projection for England - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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0% future EU migration variant - Northern Ireland population in age groups
The 0% future EU migration variant projection for Northern Ireland - population by five-year age groups and sex. Not National Statistics.
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High migration variant - England population in age groups
High migration variant projection for England - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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0% future EU migration variant - Scotland summary
The 0% future EU migration variant projection for Scotland - population by age group, components of change and summary statistics. Not National Statistics.
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High migration variant - Scotland population in age groups
High migration variant projection for Scotland - population by five-year age groups and sex.
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Old age structure variant - England summary
Old age structure variant projection for England including population by broad age group, components of change and summary statistics.
Methodology
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National population projections, background and methodology: 2018-based
General background information on the methods used to produce the 2018-based national population projections.
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National population projections QMI
Quality and methodology information (QMI) for national population projections, detailing the strengths and limitations of the data, methods used and data uses and users.
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National population projections, fertility assumptions: 2018-based
The data sources and methodology used to produce fertility assumptions in the 2018-based national population projections.
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National population projections, how the assumptions are set: 2018-based
A summary of how we set the demographic assumptions for the 2018-based national population projections.
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National population projections, migration assumptions: 2018-based
The data sources and methodology used to produce migration assumptions in the 2018-based national population projections.
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National population projections, mortality assumptions: 2018-based
The data sources and methodology used to produce mortality assumptions in the 2018-based national population projections.
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National population projections, variant projections: 2018-based
The variant projections, a range of scenarios with alternative demographic assumptions, used in the 2018-based national population projections.
Contact details
About the data
Accredited Official Statistics
These are accredited official statistics. They have been independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR) and found to comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics. This broadly means that the statistics:
- meet user needs
- are presented clearly and accessibly
- are produced using appropriate data and sound methods
- are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest