Pausing of Producer Prices publications

During work to improve the systems used to create the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Services Producer Price Indices (SPPI), our quality assurance identified a problem with the chain-linking methods used to calculate these indices.

The Consumer Prices Indices (CPI) and CPIH are completely unaffected by this issue.

This problem affects the years from 2008 onwards. However, the main impact on annual producer price inflation rates is seen in 2022 and 2023. As a consequence, we are pausing the publication of PPI and SPPI data, which was next due on 26 March, while we rectify this issue. As construction price deflators are partly derived from PPIs and SPPIs, these indices are also affected and publication of them will also be paused. We are planning to recommence publication in the summer and will keep users informed of progress.

While it is too soon to calculate the overall impact, our current assessment, based on the methods we are likely to use, is that while the effects are likely to be mixed for different products and industries, we currently expect the headline output PPI to be revised upwards. Conversely, the headline SPPI is likely to be revised downwards.

As these detailed price data are used within our GDP calculations, this may lead to impacts on the level of some industries with revisions to estimates for services, production and construction particularly likely in 2022 and 2023. At an aggregate level for GDP, these revisions should be offsetting to an extent, while taken alongside regular data deliveries. Early indications suggest that there will not be a notable change in the recent economic trends seen in these data, but we will update users once more information becomes available. We do not plan any changes to the publication timetable for monthly, quarterly or annual GDP.

This problem also affects some of the deflators used for both trade in goods and trade in services, including the import price indices (IPI) and export price indices (EPI). Further analysis is required to understand the full impact to trade, including impacts at a more detailed level, for example by country and commodity. Early analysis suggests that some goods export and import data from 2023 may be impacted, and some goods export data prior to 2014.

We will provide further information on the likely impacts and timetable for recommencing publication of the PPIs and SPPIs as soon as is practicable.

The ONS apologises for the inconvenience caused.