GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: January to March 2024

• UK gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have increased by 0.7% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024, revised up from a first estimate increase of 0.6%.

• Looking at more timely monthly estimates of GDP, it was recently estimated that the economy showed no growth in April 2024.

• GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 1 2024 compared with the same quarter a year ago.

• In output terms, services grew by 0.8% on the quarter with widespread growth across the sector; elsewhere the production sector grew by 0.6% while the construction sector fell by 0.6%.

• In expenditure terms, there were increases in the volume of net trade and household spending, partially offset by falls in gross capital formation and government consumption.

• The household saving ratio is estimated to be 11.1% in the latest quarter, up from 10.2% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023.

• Real households’ disposable income (RHDI) is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in Quarter 1 2024, maintaining the same growth as the previous quarter.

UK real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024, revised up from a first estimate increase of 0.6%. This follows falls in the previous two quarters (Figure 1). Compared with the same quarter a year ago, real GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.3% in Quarter 1 2024.

Looking at our more timely monthly estimates of GDP, it was recently estimated that the economy showed no growth in April 2024 as an increase in the services sector was offset by falls in production and construction.

Figure 1 shows that the economy has increased in the latest quarter following two consecutive quarters of negative growth. As explained in our Communicating the UK economic cycle methodology article, the concept of a “technical” recession comprises two or more consecutive quarters of contracting output. Most experts, as noted in our recent blog, consider other factors, while taking into account the latest data. For example, it is advisable to consider the broader picture such as the depth, diffusion (spread) and duration of the change in GDP.

It is also important to note that early estimates of GDP are subject to revision (positive or negative). For more information please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2023 article. In the past, the absolute average revision between the first quarterly GDP estimate and the same quarterly estimate three years later is 0.2 percentage points when more detailed information is available through the comprehensive annual supply and use balancing process. The GDP growth vintages are shown in Table 4. In line with the National Accounts Revisions Policy, data for Quarter 1 2024 are open to revision in this publication.

As well as producing estimates of GDP, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) also produces estimates of GDP per head (or per capita), which divides UK GDP by the total UK population. This is one proxy indicator of welfare, rather than production. As the UK population might not be changing at the same rate as GDP, this means that growth in GDP per head can show a different trend to growth in headline GDP.

Real GDP per head is estimated to have increased by 0.5% in Quarter 1 2024 (revised from an increase of 0.4%), following seven consecutive quarters without positive growth. It is estimated to be 0.6% lower compared with the same quarter a year ago.

It is important to note that estimates of GDP per head up to 2021 are based on population estimates, whereas data for 2022 to 2024 are based on interim population projections. In our September 2024 quarterly national accounts, we will update our estimates of GDP per head for 2022 in line with the latest mid-year population estimates.

Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 1.6% in Quarter 1 2024 (revised from a 1.2% increase). Growth in the latest quarter is mainly driven by an increase in compensation of employees. Nominal GDP is estimated to have increased by 4.6% compared with the same quarter a year ago.

The implied GDP deflator represents the broadest measure of inflation in the domestic economy, reflecting changes in the price of all goods and services that comprise GDP. It is important to note that the GDP deflator covers the whole of the domestic economy, not just consumer spending, and also reflects the change in the relative price of exports to imports. For more information on the implied GDP deflator, see our Measuring price changes of the UK national accounts: February 2023 article.

The implied price of GDP rose by 0.9% in Quarter 1 2024, revised up from the first estimate increase of 0.6%. The upward revision mainly reflects a 1.0 percentage point revision to the implied price of government consumption. Further information on this revision is discussed in Section 4: Expenditure.

Compared with the same quarter a year ago, the GDP implied deflator increased by 4.3% in Quarter 1 2024 (Figure 2).

The three approaches to measuring GDP

As explained in our previous release, UK GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in 2023, following growth of 4.3% in 2022. Data up to 2021 have been reconciled through the supply and use tables (SUTs) framework to produce one coherent estimate of GDP. Estimates of real GDP in 2022 and 2023 have not yet been fully reconciled in a SUTs framework so this estimate of real GDP growth in 2022 and 2023 reflects the average of the output, expenditure and income measures.

There are differences in the three approaches to measuring GDP at this stage in the production cycle. The differences in these approaches from 2022 onwards may be for various reasons, this is further discussed in Section 11: Measuring the data.

Estimates for 2023 will next be open for revision in September 2024, where 2022 data will also be confronted through the SUTs framework for the first time and, as a result, there will be one single estimate of GDP for 2022. The September 2024 release will also incorporate changes from 2020 onwards as well as updating the base year from 2019 to 2022.

Output is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024, following two consecutive falls of 0.1% in Quarter 3 (July to Sept) and 0.3% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023.

The growth in the latest quarter was driven by a 0.8% increase in services output (revised from a 0.7% increase) and 0.6% increase in production (revised from a 0.8% increase). Early estimates suggest 12 out of 20 of the subsectors grew across Quarter 1, up from 6 the previous quarter.

Services

Services output increased for the first time since Quarter 1 2023 after three consecutive quarters of decline. The services sector is now estimated to have increased by 0.8%, revised up from the previous estimate increase of 0.7%. Revisions in the services sector mainly reflected late and updated Monthly Business Survey returns.

Widespread growth in the services sector is shown in Figure 3, with 10 out of 14 subsectors increasing in Quarter 1 2024, largely unchanged from the first estimate. The largest contributor to the growth in services output was a 1.8% increase in the professional, scientific and technical activities subsector. This was largely driven by growth of 7.2% in scientific research and development, and growth of 3.3% in legal activities.

The second largest positive contribution to growth was from the transport and storage subsector, which grew by 4.3%. This was largely driven by growth of 7.2% in land transport services and transport services via pipelines, excluding rail transport. This was the strongest growth for this industry since Quarter 3 2020.

As published in our monthly GDP release, there was strong growth in February 2024 where Monthly Business Survey data showed strength in the land transport services industry. Reclassifications into this industry, previously allocated in the wholesale trade excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles industry, also contributed to the strong growth.

Elsewhere there were falls in financial and insurance activities (0.2%), and accommodation and food service activities (0.4%).

Overall, consumer-facing services grew by 0.6% in Quarter 1 2024, following a fall of 0.4% in Quarter 4 2023. This was largely driven by retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles. More information can be found in our Retail sales publication. Additionally, anecdotal evidence from our UK spending on credit and debit cards dataset showed strong growth in credit and debit card spending on delayables in the start of 2024.

Production

The production sector is estimated to have increased by 0.6% in the latest quarter (revised down from a previous estimate of 0.8% growth).

The production sector revision is because of a downward revision in the manufacturing subsector, which is now estimated to have increased by 1.1% (previously 1.4%). This is mainly because of late and updated Monthly Business Survey data, particularly in the manufacture of transport equipment.

Within production, manufacturing was the largest contributor, with 7 out of the 13 manufacturing subsectors growing in the latest quarter, as shown in Figure 4, largely unchanged from the first estimate.

The largest positive contributor was a 4.6% increase in the manufacture of transport equipment, which has grown for six consecutive quarters. Manufacture of basic metals and metal products grew by 3.2%, and manufacture of food products, beverages and tobacco showed growth of 1.6%. However, this was partially offset by a fall of 4.3% in the manufacture of textiles, wearing apparel and leather, which fell for the sixth consecutive quarter.

Elsewhere in the production sector, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply contributed positively, with growth of 1.4%. However, the growth in this subsector and manufacturing was partially offset by a fall of 2.2% in water supply; sewerage, waste management and remediation activities, and a fall of 2.2% in mining and quarrying across the quarter.

Construction

Construction output is estimated to have fallen by 0.6% in Quarter 1 2024, revised up from a first estimate fall of 0.9%, mainly because of upward revisions in new work. The level of construction output in Quarter 1 2024 was 0.4% lower than the same quarter a year ago.

The fall reflects a decline in new work of 1.2% driven by infrastructure new work, which fell by 3.8%. However, repair and maintenance increased by 0.2%. Anecdotal evidence from the Bank of England’s Agents’ summary of business conditions report for Quarter 1 2024 suggests housing associations were redirecting budgets towards repairs and upgrading to deal with problems such as damp, arising from tenants using less heating because of the higher cost of living.

Data from the Met Office show wet weather in February 2024 (PDF, 4.56MB), which is likely to have had adverse effects on the construction sector. Construction output fell by 1.6% in February 2024, with declines in both new work, and repair and maintenance.

There was an increase in the volume of net trade and household spending in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024, partially offset by falls in gross capital formation and government consumption. Figure 5 shows the previous and latest contributions to expenditure growth in Quarter 1 2024. These revisions to components are discussed in more detail in this section.

Household consumption

There was an increase of 0.4% in real household expenditure in Quarter 1 2024, revised up from the first estimate increase of 0.2%. This follows declines in the previous two quarters.

Within household consumption, the largest contributions to the growth were from recreation and culture; housing; and food and non-alcoholic drink.

Net tourism contributed negatively to growth in the latest quarter. Net tourism is offset within trade and therefore there is no impact on the gross domestic production (GDP) aggregate. Information on how we measure net tourism is provided in our National Accounts article: Treatment of tourism in the UK National Accounts. Excluding net tourism, domestic consumption increased by 0.7% in the latest quarter, in line with consumer-facing services in the output approach to measuring GDP.

There was a small upward revision to household consumption growth in Quarter 1 2024 of 0.2 percentage points mainly because of net tourism. The upward revision in net tourism reflects an update to the seasonal adjustment factors used to ensure consistency within the trade component of the national accounts.

Consumption of government goods and services

Real government consumption expenditure is now estimated to have shown no growth in the latest quarter, revised down from the first estimate increase of 0.3%. The revision to real consumption mainly reflects new data available on public administration and defence.

Within government consumption there was higher activity in health; and transport, which was partially offset by falls in public administration and defence; and education. The growth in health was because of stronger than forecast prescriptions data and may reflect less impact from industrial action compared with previous quarters. Further information is provided in our monthly GDP release.

Nominal government expenditure is now estimated to have increased by 0.2%, revised up from a first estimate fall of 0.4%. This upward revision reflects updated current price data on healthcare spending. As a result of the revisions to nominal and real government consumption, the implied deflator is now estimated to have increased by 0.2%, revised up from a previous estimate fall of 0.9%.

Gross capital formation

Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) is estimated to have increased by 0.9% in Quarter 1 2024, revised down from the first estimate increase of 1.4%. Growth in the latest quarter was driven by increases in dwellings; information and communications technology (ICT) equipment and other machinery and equipment; and other buildings and structures.

Within gross fixed capital formation, business investment is estimated to have increased by 0.5% in Quarter 1 2024 (revised from a 0.9% increase), following a 1.4% increase in the previous quarter. Compared with the same quarter a year ago, business investment is estimated to have fallen by 1.0%.

Revisions in gross fixed capital and business investment reflect revised survey data.

Excluding the alignment and balancing adjustments, early estimates show that inventories fell by £1.3 billion in Quarter 1 2024. In current price terms, estimates show that there was an increase of £3.3 billion in the latest quarter, driven by higher stocks in the manufacturing sector.

Net trade

The UK’s trade deficit for goods and services was 0.5% of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in Quarter 1 2024. However, this includes non-monetary gold, which is an erratic series so it can be useful to exclude this from the trade balance. Excluding non-monetary gold, the trade deficit was 0.9% of nominal GDP in Quarter 1 2024, revised up from a deficit of 1.1% (Figure 6).

Exports

Export volumes fell by an unrevised 1.0% in the latest quarter, the fifth consecutive quarterly fall. The decline in the latest quarter was driven by a 3.5% fall in goods exports (revised from a 3.4% fall), which offset a 1.2% increase in services exports (revised from a 1.0% increase).

The downward revision in goods exports was mainly because of revisions to non-monetary gold. This offset an upward revision in services exports, which has seen revision because of updated quarterly International Trade in Services Survey (ITIS) data, as well the replacement of forecasts with actual external source data such as from the Chamber of Shipping and Civil Aviation Authority.

The decline in goods exports was mainly driven by large movements in non-monetary gold, however, this series also appears within gross capital formation (GCF) as valuables and so the effect is GDP neutral. Elsewhere there were falls in machinery and transport equipment; and fuels.

The increase in services exports were driven mainly by travel, intellectual property and transport services.

Imports

Import volumes fell by 2.7% in the latest quarter (previously a 2.3% fall), following a fall of 0.3% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023. The decline in the latest quarter was driven by a 3.2% decline in goods (revised from a 2.9% fall) and a 1.7% decline in services (revised from a 1.3% fall). The downward revision to import volumes was because of revised estimates of goods imports (reflecting updated data on machinery and transport equipment) and services imports (reflecting the replacement of forecasts with actual data for travel services).

The fall in goods imports was driven by declines in machinery and transport equipment, in particular in imports of cars and mechanical power generators. The fall in services imports was mainly because of declines in other business services, and insurance and pension services.

Nominal gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 1.6% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024, revised up from a previous estimate of 1.2%.

Growth in nominal GDP was driven by increases in all main components. Figure 7 shows that there has been a large revision to compensation of employees, which is discussed in more detail.

Compensation of employees

Compensation of employees increased by 1.2% in the latest quarter, revised up from a first estimate increase of 0.2%. The upward revision was driven by wages and salaries, which is now estimated to have increased by 1.0% (previously 0.7%) and employers’ social contributions, which is now estimated to have increased by 2.2% (previously a 2.2% fall).

The upward revisions in wages and salaries reflects new data on earnings and employee numbers. There is currently more uncertainty around the wages and salaries figures in this publication because of lower response rates in the Labour Force Survey. We have used additional information from our Pay As You Earn Real Time Information bulletin to help inform the estimates.

The upward revision in employers’ social contributions reflects new National Insurance contributions data from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC). Early indications are that bonuses in the financial sector are affecting growth this quarter, however, this should be treated with caution until more robust evidence becomes available.

Taxes less subsidies

Revised estimates show that taxes less subsidies increased by 3.2% (previously a 1.4% increase) in Quarter 1 2024. Growth in the latest quarter was driven by a 3.4% increase in taxes (mainly Value Added Tax) and a 5.0% increase in subsidies. The upward revisions in taxes less subsidies mainly reflect updated data on Value Added Tax.

Gross operating surplus

Total gross operating surplus (GOS) of corporations excluding the alignment adjustment increased by 2.2% (Table 3), with increases in non-financial corporations. Within GOS of corporations, there is uncertainty around the full impacts of the Energy Bill Relief and Energy Price Guarantee schemes that affect the end of 2022 and first half of 2023. We do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses as these data are collected from HMRC and are available with a lag of approximately two years. As such we rely on contextual data (as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies Quality and Methodology Information) from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates.

It is also important to note that early estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) are subject to revision (positive or negative). For more information please refer to our GDP revisions in Blue Book: 2023 article. In line with the National Accounts Revision Policy, data for Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024 are only open to revision in this publication.

The revised estimates of average real GDP compared with the first estimate are shown in Figure 1, while the GDP growth vintages are shown in Table 4. Revision triangles for GDP and components data are available alongside this publication.

The revisions to quarter-on-quarter growth for the components of GDP are shown in Table 5. This release includes the processing of new and revised source data, replacement of forecasts with actual survey or external source data, new seasonal adjustment factors, and a review of GDP balancing.

Household saving ratio

The household saving ratio is estimated at 11.1% in Quarter 1 (Jan to Mar) 2024, up from 10.2% in Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2023. Following seven quarters of pension saving contributing more to the savings ratio, this is the second quarter that non-pension saving contributed more to the savings ratio (Figure 8). The increase in the savings ratio of 0.9 percentage points in Quarter 1 2024 was driven by an increase in income from wages and salaries of £3.0 billion, an increase in the adjustment for pension entitlements of £3.7 billion, and a decrease in households’ actual social contributions paid by employees of £3.4 billion, which was driven by the reduction of the employees’ National Insurance contribution rate.

The rise in the savings ratio was offset by a rise in taxes on income of £3.6 billion, driven by an increase in taxes on self-employment and other of £3.1 billion, and a rise in final consumption expenditure of £3.5 billion. The largest contributor to final consumption expenditure was higher expenditure in imputed and actual rentals, electricity and gas, and restaurants and cafes.

Real households’ disposable income (seasonally adjusted)

Real households’ disposable income (RHDI) is estimated to have grown by 0.7% in Quarter 1 2024, maintaining the same growth as the previous quarter (Figure 9).

Within RHDI, nominal gross disposable income saw growth at 1.1%, because of an increase in compensation of employees of £4.3 billion. This was itself driven by an increase in wages and salaries of £3.0 billion and a decrease in households’ actual social contributions paid by employees of £3.4 billion, which was driven by the reduction of the employees’ National Insurance contribution rate.

This was offset by a rise in taxes on income and wealth of £3.6 billion, which was driven by an increase in taxes on self-employment of £3.1 billion and an increase in the implied deflator of 0.4%.

Non-financial account net lending and borrowing (seasonally adjusted)

The UK’s borrowing position with the rest of the world as a percentage of GDP is estimated to have increased to 3.4% in Quarter 1 2024 compared with 3.3% of GDP in Quarter 4 2023.

Financial corporations decreased their net lending position to 0.4% of GDP in the latest quarter, from 2.0% of GDP in Quarter 4 2023. This was driven by a fall in net property income of £11.4 billion together with an increase in the adjustment for pensions entitlements of £3.7 billion and a rise in gross capital formation of £2.4 billion, partially offset by a rise in social contributions of £3.3 billion and an increase in net capital transfers of £2.2 billion.

Non-financial corporations decreased their net borrowing to 1.1% of GDP, from 2.7% of GDP in Quarter 4 2023. Within non-financial corporations, private non-financial corporations’ (PNFCs) decreased their net borrowing to £8.9 billion, from £18.6 billion in the previous quarter. This decrease was driven by a rise in net property income of £5.1 billion and an increase in gross operating surplus of £3.0 billion.

Households increased their net lending position to 4.1% of GDP, up from 2.9% of GDP in Quarter 4 2023. This was driven by an increase in income from wages and salaries of £3.0 billion, a rise in the adjustment for pension entitlements of £3.7 billion, and a decrease in households’ actual social contributions paid by employees of £3.4 billion. The latter was driven by the reduction of the employees’ National Insurance contribution rate, a rise in other capital transfers of £2.8 billion, and an increase in investment grants of £1.5 billion.

This was offset by a rise in taxes on income of £3.6 billion driven by an increase in taxes on self-employment of £3.1 billion, and a rise in final consumption expenditure of £3.5 billion. The largest contributor to final consumption expenditure was higher expenditure in imputed and actual rentals, electricity and gas, and restaurants and cafes.

General government increased net borrowing to 5.9% of GDP in Quarter 1 2024 from 4.6% of GDP in Quarter 4 2023. Within general government, central government increased net borrowing to £39.0 billion following £30.4 billion in the previous quarter.

This increase was driven by a fall in net capital transfers of £8.6 billion, a fall in net social contributions and benefits of £3.5 billion, and a decrease in net other current transfers of £1.9 billion. This was partially offset by a rise in taxes on income and wealth of £3.1 billion, and a rise in taxes on production and imports less subsidies of £2.4 billion.

Financial account net lending and borrowing (not seasonally adjusted)

The UK’s net borrowing position with the rest of the world as a percentage of GDP is estimated to have decreased to 0.2% in Quarter 1 2024 compared with 1.3% of GDP in Quarter 4 2023.

Households saw a decrease in their net lending as a percentage of GDP in the latest quarter at an estimated 4.3%, from 5.1% in Quarter 4 2023. This was driven by falls in currency and deposits of £9.1 billion and loans of £1.1 billion, offset by increases in insurance, pensions and the standardised guarantees of £3.6 billion, and net other accounts of £2.0 billion.

Financial corporations are borrowing at 0.5% as a percentage of GDP in the latest quarter. Their financial account saw a fall in net equity and investment fund shares and units of £32.1 billion, a fall in net derivatives and employees’ stock options of £6.5 billion, and a fall in net loans of £4.5 billion. Offsetting this were increases in currency and deposits of £20.2 billion, and debt securities of £6.1 billion.

Non-financial corporations have seen a fall in net borrowing as a percentage of GDP to 1.6% in the latest quarter, down from 3.5% in Quarter 4 2023. Within this sector, private non-financial corporations (PNFCs) decreased their net borrowing to £11.9 billion in Quarter 1 2024 from £24.2 billion in the previous quarter. This was driven by rises in net other accounts of £25.0 billion, net equity and investment fund shares and units of £15.0 billion and net derivatives and employees stock options of £1.3 billion. This was partially offset by a fall in net debt securities of £17.1 billion, a fall in currency and deposits of £8.9 billion and a fall in net loans of £3.2 billion.

General government decreased their net borrowing as a percentage of GDP to an estimated 2.1% in the latest quarter, from 6.0% in Quarter 4 2023. This decrease was driven by a fall in long-term debt securities issued by UK central government of £54.6 billion and an increase in net other deposits of £6.9 billion, partially offset by a fall in net other accounts of £26.7 billion.

Reaching the GDP balance

The different data content and quality of the three approaches: the output approach, the expenditure approach and the income approach, dictate the approach taken in balancing quarterly data. In the UK, there are more data available on output in the short term than in either of the other two approaches. To obtain the best estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) (the published figure), the estimates from all three approaches are balanced to produce an average, except in the latest two quarters where the output data take the lead because of the larger data content.

The three approaches to measuring GDP allow us to confront our data sources within the national accounts framework. Figure 10 shows that real GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.1% in 2023, however, there are differences in the three approaches to measuring GDP at this stage in the production cycle. The differences in these approaches across 2022 and 2023 may be for various reasons.

Output approach

In the output approach, we do not currently have final estimates for intermediate consumption (value of goods and services purchased to be used up in the production of goods and services) as outlined in our Impact of Blue Book 2023 changes on gross domestic product article. Initially, we use turnover and output as a proxy for changes in gross value added and assume that the intermediate consumption ratio by industry, calculated in 2021, holds constant into 2022 onwards. For example, input costs as a proportion of turnover or output remain fixed. In September 2024, data will now be confronted through the SUTs framework for the first time, and as a result we will have estimates for intermediate consumption for 2022.

Expenditure approach

In the expenditure approach, we currently have lower response rates for areas such as the Living Costs and Foods Survey, which underpin our estimates of household consumption. As explained in our GDP quarterly national accounts, UK: July to September 2023 release, the 2022 annual benchmark data for the International Trade in Services (ITIS) survey are not yet available because of improving sample methodology and requiring additional time to quality assure the data. However, the quarterly ITIS data for 2022 and 2023 were included in this dataset.

Income approach

In the income approach, we do not have up-to-date quarterly information on the gross trading profits of businesses as these data are collected from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) and are available with a lag of approximately two years. We rely on contextual data (as outlined in our Profitability of UK companies Quality and Methodology Information) from other sources to inform these quarterly estimates. There is currently more uncertainty around the compensation of employees’ figures in this publication because of lower response rates in the Labour Force Survey. We have used additional information from our Pay As You Earn Real Time Information bulletin to help inform the estimates.

Estimates for 2023 will next be open for revision in September 2024 where 2022 data will also be confronted through the SUTs framework for the first time and, as a result there will be one single estimate of GDP for 2022. This release will also incorporate changes from 2020 onwards as well as updating the base year from 2019 to 2022. Further information is provided in our Proposed changes to be implemented in Blue Book and Pink Book: 2024 article.

Quarterly GDP is a balanced measure of the three approaches, while the GDP monthly estimate focuses on gross value added (GVA) and output as a proxy for GDP. This results in data differences (in both levels and growths terms) between the quarterly publications (average GDP) and the GDP monthly estimate (output approach to GDP). Quarterly GDP is the lead measure of GDP because of its higher data content and inclusion of variables, which enable the conversion from a GVA concept to a GDP basis.

Information on the methods we use for Balancing the output, income and expenditure approaches to measuring GDP is available.

Alignment adjustments, found in Table M of our GDP quarterly estimate datasets, have a target limit of plus or minus £3,000 million on any quarter. However, in periods where the data sources are particularly difficult to balance, larger alignment adjustments are sometimes needed, as explained in our article Recent challenges of balancing the three approaches of GDP. Our standard practice is to prefer that the alignment adjustment be out of tolerance rather than over-adjust individual GDP components to achieve a balance. This is most likely to occur in the latest quarter where the constraints are larger, where we must align to the output estimate for the change in GDP, and where the data content is at its lowest.

To achieve a balanced GDP dataset through alignment, balancing adjustments are applied to the components of GDP where data content is particularly weak in a given quarter because of a higher level of forecast content. The balancing adjustments applied in this estimate are shown in Table 7. The resulting series should be considered accordingly.

Net trade

HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) implemented a data collection change affecting data on goods exports from Great Britain (GB) to the EU in January 2021, and data on goods imports from the EU to GB in January 2022. For more information see HMRC’s Methodology changes to trade in goods statistics from March 2022 article.

We have applied adjustments to our estimates of goods imports from the EU for 2021 to reflect this data collection change, which brought imports and exports statistics onto a like-for-like basis in 2021, as detailed in our Trade in goods: Adjustments to 2021 EU imports estimates, by chapter dataset. The full time series for goods imports from and exports to the EU contains a discontinuity from January 2021 resulting from the move from Intrastat to customs declarations, as detailed in our Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: adjustments to 2021 EU imports estimates article. We are continuing to work with HMRC to consider possible options to account for this discontinuity.

Separately, in 2021, the use of Staged Customs Controls (SCC) allowed customs declarations to be reported up to 175 days after the date of import for imports of non-controlled goods from the EU to GB. The UK government introduced full customs controls in January 2022, while July 2022 marked the first full month of data where delayed customs declarations submitted under SCC could not be included. Temporary arrangements still apply for imports of goods from Ireland to GB. In our article Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: further update on Staged Customs Controls published on 3 July 2023, we presented analysis on the impact of SCC on trade in goods data for imports from the EU to GB in 2022. We have previously adjusted for the impact of SCC and have published an article Impact of trade in goods data collection changes on UK trade statistics: adjustments to 2022 EU imports estimates providing a detailed breakdown of the impact of these adjustments.

In our December 2023 Quarterly national accounts release, we incorporated a number of better quality but less timely annual datasets for 2022, however, annual data for 2022 from the International Trade in Services (ITIS) Survey has not been included in this dataset as we have been developing and improving methodology for the sample and require additional time to quality assure the data. These will be incorporated in our September 2024 Quarterly national accounts. Quarterly ITIS data for 2022 are included our current dataset.

The UK National Accounts are drawn together using data from many different sources. This ensures that they are comprehensive and provide different perspectives on the economy, for example, sales by retailers and purchases by households. Further information on measuring gross domestic product (GDP) can be found in the Guide to the UK National Accounts, and more quality and methodology information (QMI) is available in the Gross domestic product (GDP) Quality and Methodology Information.

Important quality information

There are common pitfalls in interpreting data series, and these include:

• expectations of accuracy and reliability in early estimates are often too high

• revisions are an inevitable consequence of the trade-off between timeliness and accuracy

• early estimates are often based on incomplete data

Very few statistical revisions arise as a result of “errors” in the popular sense of the word. All estimates, by definition, are subject to statistical “error”.

Accredited official statistics

These accredited official statistics were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in October 2016. They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics (opens in a new tab) and should be labelled “accredited official statistics”.