1. Introduction
A bumper edition this quarter as the local and general elections meant the spring edition wasn’t published.
Prominent this quarter are the mid-2016 population estimates published on 22 June 2017 showing an increase in the UK population roughly equivalent to a city the size of Bradford. Migration also features strongly with the Migration Statistics Quarterly Report (MSQR) showing that net international migration for calendar year 2016 (+248,000) was down on 2015 (+332,000).
Other statistics from population estimates show that the EU referendum (following closely after the 2015 general election) may have generated an increased wish to participate in the political process. The number of UK electors registered to vote in December 2016 (published in March 2017) showed over a million more than the same month in the previous year and a large increase in overseas voter registration.
ONS is seeking ways to help make our data more interactive and accessible for our users. A new tool has been developed to allow users to customise data to their own specification. There is an alpha version of the tool which includes a link to use it. It includes sub-national population projections, short-term internal migration and small area population statistics. We would welcome feedback on the tool at pop.info@ons.gov.uk.
Back to table of contents2. Population estimates
Mid-2016 population estimates – UK population grows by the size of Bradford
The mid-2016 population estimates were published on 22 June 2017 with news that the UK population had grown in the year to 30 June 2016 by 538,000 (roughly the size of the population of Bradford) to 65,648,000.
Main points:
UK population 65.6 million
0.8% growth in line with recent years (0.9% in England, 0.6% in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and 0.5% in Wales)
Highest single year increase in numbers since 1947
England population exceeds 55 million
UK population grew by 0.8% in the year to mid-2016
Figure 1: Annual population change for the UK, mid-1944 to mid-2016
Source: Office for National Statistics, National Records of Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
Notes:
- At mid-1947 and mid-1952 population estimates changed in the way home armed forces resident in the UK and UK armed forces posted abroad were included or excluded. Population estimates back to 1838 are available in the supporting information tables.
Download this chart Figure 1: Annual population change for the UK, mid-1944 to mid-2016
Image .csv .xlsIn mid-2016, within the UK population 18.0% were aged 65 and over, compared with 15.9% in mid-2006
Figure 2: Population pyramid for the UK, mid-2016, single year of age 0 to 89
Source: Office for National Statistics, National Records of Scotland, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
Notes:
- Data for those aged 90 and over has been excluded from this population pyramid.
Download this image Figure 2: Population pyramid for the UK, mid-2016, single year of age 0 to 89
.png (35.5 kB) .xls (31.2 kB)
3. UK elector numbers surge by a million helped by interest in the EU referendum
Figures released on 16 March 2017 showed that the number of UK electors registered to vote increased compared with 2015.
Statistician Neil Park commented:
“In the year to December 2016, the number of people registered to vote in parliamentary and local government elections across the UK increased by around 1 million. In the previous 2 years the number of people registered to vote had decreased partly as a consequence of the introduction of Individual Electoral Registration (IER). A key driver of the increase in the size of the electorate in the year to December 2016 was public engagement with the EU referendum in June 2016.”
While England, Scotland and Wales all had increases in the number of electors registered, Northern Ireland showed a decrease of around 35,000. Northern Ireland’s decrease was largely due to the removal of 60,000 names of people who did not return a registration form during the 2013 canvass. The names were retained for 2 years before the law required that anyone who had not completed a form during that time be removed by 1 December 2016. Further information can be found on the Electoral Office for Northern Ireland website.
England and Wales overseas voter numbers see another big rise
After more than quadrupling between 2014 and 2015, the number of registered electors living overseas again rose sharply in 2016 from 0.59% of the electorate from 0.25% in 2015
Back to table of contents4. Migration statistics
Figure 3: Long-Term International Migration, UK, 2007 to 2016 (year ending December 2016)
Source: Office for National Statistics, Long-Term International Migration
Notes:
- Figures for YE 2016 are provisional. In this chart provisional estimates are shown in a shaded area. Rolling year data are produced quarterly and are for year ending (YE) March (q1), YE June (q2), YE September (q3) and YE December (q4).
- Net migration estimates for the period 2001 to 2011 have been revised in light of the 2011 Census. Immigration and emigration estimates have not been revised and are therefore not consistent with the revised net migration estimates. The revised estimates are only available for the years ending June and December each year. Refer to Section 10: Revisions to net migration estimates in light of the 2011 Census.
- Users are encouraged to review the published tables for confidence intervals and an insight into the inherent uncertainty in these statistics.
Download this chart Figure 3: Long-Term International Migration, UK, 2007 to 2016 (year ending December 2016)
Image .csv .xlsWe published the latest Migration Statistics Quarterly Report on 25 May 2017 and here are some of the highlights.
Overall migration
Net long-term international migration to the UK was estimated to be +248,000 in 2016, down 84,000 from 2015 (this was a statistically significant decrease); immigration was estimated to be 588,000 and emigration 339,000.
Emigration up, especially non-UK EU citizens
The net migration change was driven by a statistically significant increase in emigration in 2016, up 40,000 from 2015 and a decrease of 43,000 in immigration (not statistically significant). These were mainly non-UK EU citizens (up 31,000 from 2015 to 117,000).
Immigration slows from EU8
EU8 (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Slovenia) citizens have partly driven the changes with a fall in immigration (down 25,000) to 48,000 and a rise in emigration (up 16,000) to 43,000 in 2016 (both statistically significant changes); this resulted in the smallest net migration estimate (+5,000) for the EU8 since joining the EU in 2004.
Work remains the most common reason for international migration (275,000 in 2016, while long-term immigration for study (136,000 in 2016) saw a statistically significant fall of 32,000 from 2015.
On 29 June 2017, we published Living abroad: migration between Britain and Spain.
Table 1: Latest changes in migration, UK, year ending December 2015 and year ending December 2016
| thousands | ||||||||||||||
| YE Dec 2015 | 95% CI | YE Dec 2016 | 95% CI | Difference | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net migration | 332 | +/-38 | 248 | +/-41 | - 84* | |||||||||
| Immigration | 631 | +/-33 | 588 | +/-34 | -43 | |||||||||
| Emigration | 299 | +/-20 | 339 | +/-23 | 40* | |||||||||
| Source: Office for National Statistics, Long-Term International Migration | ||||||||||||||
| Notes: | ||||||||||||||
| 1. The estimates given are the sum of the EU, non-EU and British citizenship groupings. | ||||||||||||||
| 2. 2016 estimates are provisional. | ||||||||||||||
| 3. Figures are rounded to the nearest thousand. Figures may not sum due to rounding. | ||||||||||||||
| 4. Further information on confidence intervals can be found in the MSQR Information for Users. | ||||||||||||||
| 5. YE = Year Ending. | ||||||||||||||
| 6. CI = Confidence Interval. | ||||||||||||||
| 7. Statistically significant change at the 5% level is indicated by an asterisk. | ||||||||||||||
Download this table Table 1: Latest changes in migration, UK, year ending December 2015 and year ending December 2016
.xls (28.7 kB)5. Demographic Analysis Unit
On 19 April 2017, we published the subnational sexual identity estimates, which showed:
around 2% of the population identified themselves as gay or lesbian, bisexual or other
just over 4% don’t know or refused to answer
Among the regions, London had the highest percentage (2.9%) of people identifying themselves as gay or lesbian, bisexual or other and also the highest percentage (6.9%) of those who don’t know or refused to answer. The estimates also revealed some rural hotspots with higher percentages than for the UK.
Estimates were available for most English counties but due to the low numbers sampled information is only available for 98 out of 380 local authorities in England, Scotland and Wales.
Back to table of contents6. Population Statistics Research Update
Published on 22 June 2017, the population statistics research update includes the latest news on a range of research projects currently underway. These include research into methods for estimating internal migration and other aspects of the population estimates, developments in the national and subnational population projections, and methods for estimating the population by country of birth, by nationality, and by ethnic group. Updates are also provided on our work on gender identity and sexual identity. Links are also provided to each of the Quality Assurance of Administrative Data reports that we have published to help users understand the quality of the data on which we base our statistics.
Household projections consultation
In January 2017 we took on the responsibility for the household projections for England and we have consulted users on the methods used for the projections and on the outputs we should publish. On 30 June 2017 we published a response to the consultation, setting out what we will do as a result of what users have told us.
Back to table of contents7. Analytical Impact Team
On 27 January 2017 we published ‘What information is there on British migrants living in Europe?. This article sought to identify the best source of statistics available to estimate the number of British migrants living in the European Union (EU). It concluded that around 900,000 UK citizens are long-term residents of other EU countries, with Spain being home to the largest number (308,805).
We published Living abroad: migration between Britain and the EU8 on 10 July giving more information about migration between the UK and those countries who joined the EU in 2004.
On 3 March 2017 we published an overview of the UK population looking at how the population has changed, what has caused it to change and how it is projected to change in future. The article also compared the size of the UK population to other countries across Europe.
Back to table of contents8. Longitudinal Study
The Longitudinal Study (LS) holds a wealth of data spanning over 4 decades that can be used to analyse demographic trends since 1971. In March 2017, we released an interactive tool showing what happens to LS members over time. Here’s a diagram of what it can show:
Embed code
For further information please see the Longitudinal Study webpage.
Some of the things the figures tell us:
nearly half of those present at the 1971 Census remained present in the 2011 Census, providing a large sample for analysis across 40 years
of those present in the 1971 Census, the majority not present in the 2011 Census had died while others had emigrated
as with any longitudinal data set, the LS suffers from attrition – the loss of contact with some of the original sample. However attrition rates in the LS are low in comparison to most other longitudinal sources
If you are a UK-based researcher from the public, academic or voluntary sectors who would like to know more about how to use the LS, please contact the Centre for Longitudinal Study Information and User Support (CeLSIUS). Researchers based outside the UK or working in other sectors should contact ONS's Longitudinal Study Development Team at longitudinalstudy@ons.gov.uk.
Back to table of contents9. Coming soon
13 July – Population estimates by marital status and living arrangements
21 July – Interactive maps at local authority level in the Overview of the UK population, including new data and a focus on the population over 65
Living abroad: Dynamics of Migration between Britain and France
28 July Living abroad: Dynamics of Migration between Britain and Ireland
10 Aug Living abroad: Dynamics of Migration between Britain and EU2
24 August
Migration Statistics Quarterly Report
UK population by country of birth and nationality
UK migration indicators by local area
Research paper on producing population estimates by ethnic group
August/September
- Student migration paper
In September we are due to publish population statistics of the very old and national life tables with final publishing dates released a few weeks in advance and Living abroad report, migration between Britain and Germany.
Back to table of contents10. Subscribe for updates
Please follow our Population Statistics Division statistician on Twitter@PaulVickers_ONS for the latest in population statistics news and updates.
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